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Oct 2020

New York’s Next Comeback

History tells us that New York will recover from its current crises—but how? Here’s what the evidence tells us so far.

COVID-19 challenges the very function of cities — to facilitate interactions of large numbers of diverse people and activities.

Anthony Quintano Restaurant Displays Sign Were All In This Together New York City COVID19
Anthony Quintano

Whether we are entering an era of decline or come back stronger, fairer, and more resilient than ever will depend on the choices we make now.

Key Findings


Charting New York’s Next Comeback

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Sorting Fact from Fiction: What the Evidence Tells Us So Far

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The biggest dangers to New York are not intrinsic to its dense urban form, its mix of industries, or its unique place in the global economy. Rather, the greatest risk is that deterioration in human potential, fiscal conditions, and infrastructure will cause long-lasting damage.
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Where COVID-19 does spread are places where there is close indoor contact with large numbers of people, unmitigated by mask wearing and social distancing. These conditions can exist in bars, restaurants, churches, factories, sporting events, and other activities that can be in urban or non-urban settings.

While overall COVID-19 cases and deaths have decreased since early April, the correlations between deaths, race/ethnicity, and crowded living quarters increased in proportion over time, reaching their peak in June. As the virus has continued to spread and impact communities that are not especially socially vulnerable, these correlations decreased slightly but still remain higher than other social factors.

Overcrowding Covid Chart
Deaths Covid Charts
Bus Masks
NY Next Recovery Deli
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Street Lab

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Murder Rate Chart NY Comeback

The 305 murders committed so far in 2020 are a fraction of the 2,262 murders committed in 1990. New York remains an incredibly safe city by any and all standards.

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Budget NY Comeback
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FY2021 revenue, and changes since FY2020

How the Crisis Could Affect New York City's Sources of Revenue


Threats to a Robust and Equitable Recovery

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Store Closed Covid


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Five Reasons to Bet on the New York Region’s Future


Planning for an Equitable and Sustainable Future

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The Fourth Plan seeks to address issues including housing affordability, overburdened transportation infrastructure, and vulnerability to climate change—by addressing the underlying shortcomings in the region’s governance structures.
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Design and Editing

Dave Zackin
Graphic Designer, RPA

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