Amid a barrage of speculation about what the COVID-19 pandemic means for New York’s future, RPA analysis debunks doomsday predictions about density, transit and urban flight and identifies key threats to recovery

NEW YORK, NY – New York City and the surrounding metropolitan region are not spiraling into decline, and have the assets to rebound from the pandemic and recession, according to a new report released today by civic organization Regional Plan Association (RPA).

The report, entitled New York’s Next Comeback, distinguishes critical threats to the region’s recovery--like the deterioration of public services and infrastructure driven by declining tax revenues--from exaggerated fears, like the erroneous correlation of urban density to COVID-19 transmission. It finds that preventing widespread evictions and business failures demands more action and attention than the decampment of some New Yorkers to the suburbs. It shows that crime remains low by historical standards and in comparison to other cities, but suggests spikes in gun crimes and police violence must be addressed to restore confidence in public safety.

RPA argues that while New York is well-positioned to recover from the pandemic, whether the region enters an era of decline or comes back stronger, fairer, and more resilient than ever will depend on the choices we make now. All levels of government must commit to tough choices, shared sacrifice, and leadership to make structural reforms and restore confidence in the future of the city and region.

“The New York region absorbed some of the worst impacts of the coronavirus, and is in one of the best positions to fight the pandemic and recover from this social and economic devastation,” said Tom Wright, President and CEO of Regional Plan Association. ​“Our assets - unparalleled depth and diversity of talent, a broad mix of industries, strong transit and health care infrastructure, cultural capital, and yes, density — will enable New York City to remain a dynamic hub and a linchpin of the global economy. However, if our leaders don’t act fast to shore up our fiscal position and invest in those assets - our people and our infrastructure - then we will see long-term harm.”

“New York City’s obituary has been foolishly written many times before. Each time, our region has demonstrated a resilience and resolve to not only live through a crisis, but to bounce back stronger,” said Scott Rechler, Chairman of Regional Plan Association, and CEO and Chairman of RXR Realty. ​“As the RPA’s report demonstrates, New York City’s ability to recover is stronger than ever, but it is not inevitable. We can create a stronger, more prosperous, and more equitable region, but only if we are willing to work for it.”

“We know a lot more about the impacts of COVID-19 than we did in the early months of the pandemic,” said Chris Jones, Senior Vice President and Chief Planner of Regional Plan Association and the primary author of the report. ​“There’s no evidence that residential density or public transit spread the virus, but the racial and economic disparities of both the disease and recession are more stark months after the first wave of infection in New York. Changes such as increased working and learning from home will continue after the pandemic has passed, but may not be as dramatic as some have anticipated. The social interactions, creativity and opportunities that urban regions like New York provide matter as much as ever and should continue to attract people and businesses.”

Greatest Threats to New York Region’s Recovery

COVID-19 has resulted in nearly 50,000 deaths in the tri-state area. Nearly 2 million jobs in the region disappeared between March and May, and just 640,000 have come back since. Low-wage workers and immigrants, many of whom don’t have access to any federal relief or assistance, have borne the brunt of these impacts. As the New York City and the states of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut consider plans for recovery, chief concerns should be:

• Preventing the fiscal crisis from leading to extensive deterioration of public services and infrastructure, particularly the region’s transit system: If we cannot adequately maintain public services and infrastructure, New York risks losing its place as a preeminent global city. The transit network is particularly vulnerable and faces draconian service cuts unless there is an immediate infusion of new revenue.

• Limiting widespread evictions and business failures that would have ripple effects that would fall heaviest on the poor and make it much harder for the economy to recover: The longer the pandemic and economic slowdown goes on, the harder it will be for both businesses and residents to recover economically. Preventing as many evictions and business failures in the short term will have outsized benefits to our long-term recovery.

• Heading off an erosion of confidence in public safety that could lead to further outmigration and wider racial and social divisions: Both a spike in gun crimes and police violence since the spring have raised fears that New York and many other cities are increasingly unsafe. Unless both issues are addressed, the city’s hard-earned reputation as a safe place to live, work, and visit will erode, likely leading to an increase in outmigration and making it harder to retain and attract jobs and business.

RPA’s report also emphasizes the reasons to be hopeful. The region has come together to maintain a low rate of infection despite summer surges across the nation. Technology companies are increasing their presence in the city and some residents who had vacated are starting to return. The disparate racial and economic impacts of the disease and the killings and mistreatment of Black men and women have received widespread public response, creating momentum to squarely address structural inequities now as the region recovers.

History suggests New York will rebound and once again become a thriving metropolis - but how? Who will benefit and who will be left behind, and what type of place will the region become? To answer these questions, in addition to identifying threats RPA offers policymakers and regular New Yorkers five key causes for optimism and five key misconceptions to avoid as they chart a path towards recovery together.

Five Reasons to Bet on New York Region’s Future

• Urban density is still an advantage in the global economy: COVID-19 exposed vulnerabilities in the New York region, but not ones that are linked to urban density. The region will need to adapt, but the multiple venues that it can provide for social interactions, collaboration and access to career opportunities, culture, nature, education, entertainment, and different ways of life provide it with the resources to succeed.

• Diversity and talent still drive economic success: Even with more ability to work remotely, most employers will still want to be where they can physically convene employees, customers, and collaborators. The city and region have been particularly successful in attracting immigrants, who have been vital to enriching this diversity and maintaining the New York experience.

• The New York region’s unique combination of assets is impossible to replicate: No other North American metropolis can match the size and reach of the New York region’s transit network, the diversity of its economy, its concentration of culture, arts and education, or its range of communities supporting different lifestyles.

• New businesses and households will take advantage of vacant space and lower rents: No one wants to see more vacant offices, apartments, or storefronts. But as a result, landlords will need to lower rents, and there are many people and entrepreneurs who will take advantage of lower costs.

• We have a wake up call to address structural problems: The turbulence of the last six months has exposed the deep divisions and structural weaknesses embedded in our economy and institutions. With the exposure has come an outpouring of civic action, reflection, and debate, increasing the chances that the recovery will usher in reforms to make the region a healthier, fairer and more just place to live.

Five Misconceptions About Recovery to Avoid

• Mistaking short-term disruptions for new paradigms: It would be a mistake to assume that behavioral responses to COVID-19, from avoiding public transit to buying homes in the suburbs, will continue after effective vaccines and treatments have the virus under control.

• Thinking of the city and suburbs as a zero-sum game: While there are real fiscal implications when people or businesses leave the city for the suburbs, in the long run, their economies are interdependent. 22% of the income of non-New York City residents is earned within the five boroughs, and 27% of the city’s college-educated workforce resides outside its boundaries.

• Confusing national and global trends with what is unique to New York: Many of the initial assumptions about COVID-19’s link to New York’s density and transit use are proving false, and much of the higher economic pain felt in the region may be attributable to its early devastation in the pandemic’s first wave when less was known about how to track, mitigate, and treat the illness.

• Assuming a rising tide will lift all boats: Incomes and employment for people of color, low-wage workers, and less educated households will remain depressed far longer than for others without intentional policies to restore their incomes and improve access to emerging job and business opportunities.

• Recreating the past instead of envisioning the future: While we can’t fully know what behavioral changes will be permanent, we know that the next economy will be different. Investments in infrastructure and the public realm should likewise have the flexibility to adapt to new patterns of living, working, and traveling.

Several RPA staff members collaborated to produce New York’s Next Comeback including: Chris Jones, Senior Vice President and Chief Planner; Moses Gates, Vice President, Housing & Neighborhood Planning; Robert Freudenberg, Vice President, Energy & Environment; Kate Slevin, Senior Vice President, State Programs & Advocacy; Marcel Negret, Senior Planner; Maulin Mehta, Senior Associate, State Programs & Advocacy; Ellis Calvin, Data Research Manager; Dave Zackin, Graphic Designer; Brian Fritsch, Manager, Advocacy Campaigns; Christina Kata, Special Projects Associate; Carlos Mandeville, Research Analyst; and Mark McNulty, Communications Associate.