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Jun 2022

Gateway and the Post-COVID Economy

Scenarios for Future Growth and Trans-Hudson Travel

Transit trips across the Hudson River will continue to grow beyond the region’s current capacity. Without the infrastructure to meet this demand, the region’s economic growth and sustainability are in jeopardy.

RPA’s analysis finds that trans-Hudson travel demand on the heaviest travel days is likely to be at or above pre-COVID levels by the time the Hudson Tunnel Project is fully completed, and that by 2050 those trips will be 15% to 32% higher than they were before the pandemic.

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Additional Trans-Hudson capacity remains essential if the New York region is to compete with other regions where travel is far easier and transit service is more attractive and comfortable.

Key Findings

1

Purpose of Report

Our Region COVID RPA Hudson History 1 RP vol2 P555 town centers IMG 5870 2
Gateway Scenario Squares
2

Why Gateway is Considered the Nation’s Most Critical Infrastructure Project

Gateway Program Overview NEW

Amtrak

PNB New Rendering Acela

Rendering by Amtrak

GDC Concrete Hardening

Gateway Development Commission (GDC)

Track Configuration at New York Penn Station

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Amtrak

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3

What Will Determine the Long-Term Future of the Tri-State Region?

While it is easy to imagine all that could go wrong, we often forget that there are also possibilities that could make the economy and quality of life much better.

4

How RPA Developed its Scenarios

4 RP Book Affordable on white

Fourth Regional Plan

Four Regional Scenarios

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Process Diagram

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5

How Much Will People Continue to Work Remotely?

Share of Work Time Spent While Working at Home, United States, 2018

Accommodation and Food Services0.8%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation0.9%
Construction1.7%
Transportation and Warehousing1.8%
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction2.0%
Retail Trade2.2%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting2.4%
Utilities2.5%
Wholesale Trade2.8%
Management of companies and enterprises3.1%
Administrative and support and waste management services3.8%
Public Administration3.8%
Health Care and Social Assistance3.8%
Manufacturing4.0%
Educational Services4.7%
Other Services, Except Public Administration5.5%
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing8.9%
Information11.8%
Finance and Insurance12.6%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services14.8%
All Industries4.9%

Source: American Time Use Survey, 2018, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Current and Relevant Surveys and Analyses of Work-from-Home Patterns

Creating Scenarios

Low and High Work-From-Home Assumptions

Indstry20182030 Low Work-From-Home2030 High Work-From-Home
Construction2%4%8%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities2%4%8%
Manufacturing4%8%16%
Office Industries12%25%50%
Health and Education4%8%16%
Accommodation, Food Service, and Entertainment1%2%4%
Other Services and Public Administration5%10%20%
6

How Much is the Region Likely to Grow?

7

Scenarios for a Post-COVID Economy

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Job Growth in a Low Work-From-Home with High Growth Scenario

Population Growth in a Low Work-From-Home with High Growth Scenario

Job Growth in a Low Work-From-Home with Low Growth Scenario

Population Growth in a Low Work-From-Home with Low Growth Scenario

Job Growth in a High Work-From-Home with High Growth Scenario

Population Growth in a High Work-From-Home with High Growth Scenario

Job Growth in a High Work-From-Home with Low Growth Scenario

Population Growth in a High Work-From-Home with Low Growth Scenario

Regional Job Growth Scenarios

Jobs, Annual % Change, 1989-2019 Compared to 2019-2070 Scenarios

1989-2019Scenario A Scenario BScenairo CScenario D
New York City0.84%0.54%0.32%0.45%0.21%
Northern New Jersey0.41%0.51%0.28%0.60%0.38%
Long Island0.56%0.50%0.24%0.51%0.27%
Hudson Valley0.49%0.46%0.23%0.55%0.34%
Southwest Connecticut-0.20%0.14%0.05%0.18%0.10%
Region0.55%0.49%0.27%0.49%0.27%

Regional Population Growth Scenarios

Population, Annual % Change, 1990-2020 Compared to 2020-2070 Scenarios

1990-2020Scenario A Scenario BScenario CScenario D
New York City0.62%0.45%0.33%0.34%0.20%
Northern New Jersey0.66%0.69%0.46%0.76%0.55%
Long Island0.38%0.54%0.27%0.58%0.32%
Hudson Valley0.55%0.60%0.35%0.66%0.41%
Southwest Connecticut0.35%0.53%0.17%0.58%0.20%
Region0.57%0.56%0.35%0.56%0.35%
8

Implications for Travel Patterns and Demand

Manhattan-bound commuters

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Transit Share of All Trips and Work Trips Into the Manhattan CBD by Place of Trip Origin

Total TripsWork Trips
Central Business District18%26%
Connecticut98%98%
Hudson Valley-East68%77%
Hudson Valley-West50%53%
Long Island74%78%
New Jersey82%83%
New York City78%86%
Total41%58%
9

How Gateway Will Help the Region Succeed in a Post-COVID World

2020s

2030s – 2040s

Post 2050s

If the Gateway Program is stalled or canceled, it is likely that many more people and employers will choose to leave the region, and more will attempt to drive to work, which would worsen congestion and air quality for everyone.

Conclusion: The Region With and Without Gateway

Acknowledgements

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