NEW YORK, NY (July 8, 2025) — Today, Regional Plan Association (RPA) released a detailed report analyzing residential growth in New Jersey between 2000-2020 to inspect progress and further inform the new and upcoming New Jersey State plan. “Mapping New Jersey’s Growth” underscores the magnitude of the state’s ongoing housing supply shortage and measures housing progress against key qualities and goals of the 2001 State Plan, including housing affordability, access to transportation, and environmental conservation.
“While our report highlights the successes achieved following the state’s 2001 State Plan, it also makes clear the gaps in progress and the challenges we’ve had in keeping up with the demand for affordable housing,” said Marcel Negret, Director of Land Use, Regional Plan Association. “The critical housing crisis overlaps with climate-related disasters threatening current and future housing stock, so we must closely monitor multiple characteristics of the state’s municipalities before recommending future land use. We hope that our findings will ensure an even more efficient implementation of the upcoming State Development Plan and its intended impacts of sustainable, smart growth.”
The 2001 State Plan provides a framework for municipalities to achieve “smart growth,” which is, promoting compact, mixed-use development, walkable neighborhoods, and diverse transportation options in scale.
“New Jersey can’t solve its housing crisis without changing how and where we grow,” said Zoe Baldwin, Vice President of State Programs, RPA. “The 28% decline in housing production over the last two decades is stark when compared to the 1980s and 1990s, making clear that we need to build more, faster. Our findings also underscore the profound effect climate change is already having—and will continue to have—on where that growth can happen. To future-proof our state, we also need to prioritize new land use strategies that align growth with climate resilience, transit access, and long term affordability.”
In assessing the state’s residential growth following the adoption of the 2001 State Plan, RPA finds that New Jersey developed 28% percent less housing between 2000-2020 than from 1980-2000, with new unit production in Suburban Areas accounting for the sharp decline in housing production. In Suburban Areas, the new housing stock was more than halved, with an additional 79,000 incremental units added between 2000 and 2020, compared to the 184,000 units added between 1980 and 2000. Consistently over the four-decade period of 1980-2020, single-family detached homes dominate the housing stock, reflecting the suburbanization of New Jersey throughout this period.
As a direct result of housing underproduction–especially for housing units beyond single-family homes– rental and homeownership vacancy rates fell to significant lows of 3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. Concurrently, statewide average home value has more than tripled since 2000, and rents across the state have skyrocketed. Currently, 75 percent of low-income renters are considered severely cost-burdened, meaning a household is spending more than 50 percent of their income on housing.
In addition to assessing the growth of housing stock, RPA analyzed additional key principles of smart growth that is, Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) and exposure to coastal flooding. RPA’s report found:
Regarding TOD, while the state added 48,000 more units in transit-rich locations from 2000-2020 compared to 1980-2000, challenges persist. Less than 22 percent of the housing stock is located in areas with the density needed to sustain bus services and support the viability of local transit service.
Zooming into the state’s housing stock and vulnerability to coastal flooding, 9.2 percent of the total stock is exposed to storm surge flooding caused by a Category 2 Hurricane disaster. That number will only increase, further placing strain on the housing shortage. In 25 years, RPA estimates that 16.4 percent of the housing stock will be vulnerable to storm surge flooding.
With the state’s current and future needs in mind, RPA outlines key recommendations for the 2024 plan:
Municipalities at lower risk for flood exposure and high potential for smart growth must prioritize TOD, mixed-use multifamily buildings, and infill development.
Municipalities at high risk of flood must prioritize flood-resilient design and properly risk assess, balancing climate risks with necessary housing growth.
Municipalities at high exposure for future flooding with low potential for housing growth may require different approaches that ensure long-term adaptation and resilience, instead of relying solely on disaster recovery.
“The report lays bare the reality of New Jersey’s housing crisis: in the first 20 years of the 21st century, home values have more than tripled, rents have soared, and new homes are still being built in flood zones,” said Marina Rubina, architect. “Fewer than 20 percent of homes are in areas dense enough to support transit. We talk about smart growth, but we don’t build it. For those of us fighting to bring back starter homes and walkable, sustainable neighborhoods, this isn’t just data, it’s a warning. These aren’t small-town problems. This is a regional breakdown. Fixing it takes bold leadership, regional coordination, and action that matches the urgency.”
“NJBA looks forward to working with this broad coalition to break down NJ’s decades-old barriers to growth and remedy our massive housing supply shortage,” said Jeff Kolakowski, CEO of NJ Builders Association. “The time is ripe to increase the dialogue around ways to restructure how we provide housing and homeownership opportunities to improve the State’s housing ecosystem and maximize the economic, social and societal benefits it can provide.”
“New Jersey is now producing more affordable homes than ever before, but the 15-year lapse in Mount Laurel enforcement from 2000 to 2015 left a lasting impact,” said Al-Tariq Witcher, Managing Director of External Affairs, Fair Share Housing Center. “Despite recent progress — including the passage of New Jersey’s landmark new affordable housing law in 2024 to streamline and strengthen the Mount Laurel framework — we’re still making up for lost time. It will take sustained state and local leadership to fully remediate the consequences of that lost period and meet the state’s long-standing housing needs.”
“RPA’s new report, Mapping New Jersey’s Growth, correctly identifies both good news and bad news about New Jersey’s recent growth and development,” said New Jersey Future’s Director of Research, Tim Evans. “The good news is that much of New Jersey’s population growth over the last 15 years has taken place in exactly the kinds of compact, walkable, transit-accessible places that the New Jersey State Plan has identified as optimal for future growth. The bad news is that we have not produced enough housing since the Great Recession, pushing home prices upward and inducing many younger and less wealthy residents to decamp to other states in search of more affordable housing. In conjunction with recent affordable housing legislation, the final version of the updated State Plan represents a unique opportunity to emphasize equitable development and ensure people of all backgrounds and incomes can find an affordable home that suits their needs in a safe, healthy, and vibrant community.“
RPA’s report also recommends that the upcoming New Jersey State Development and Redevelopment Plan overhaul the current classification of Planning Areas and corresponding policies, ensuring municipalities are not just diagnosed by their density, but their proximity to transit and flood risk.
Find the full report here.
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About Regional Plan Association:
Regional Plan Association (RPA) is an independent non-profit organization that conducts research, planning and advocacy to expand economic opportunity, environmental resiliency, improved health, and better quality of life in the New York metropolitan area. Since the 1920s, RPA has produced four landmark plans for the region. The most recent was released in November 2017. For more information, please visit www.rpa.org.
