In the 1970s, the New York Region lost population and jobs, and its income stagnated. A sense developed that this whole part of the country was in decline, that the only planning that made sense was “planned shrinkage.” Improvements to transit were viewed as too extravagant for a declining Region, and projects like the 63rd Street and Second Avenue subways were thought to represent the misplaced priorities of a bygone era.
In the 1980s, the period of decline is over. Every year brings the Region 0.5 percent more residents, 1.5 percent more jobs, 2.0 percent more income per resident. Not just the suburbs are growing, but so is the City of New York. Two implications of this growth over the remainder of the century are most important for transportation planning:
-- Job growth in the Manhattan Central Business District (CBD) will generate demand for more trips to the CBD--probably an increase of 20 percent from New Jersey and at least 5 percent from New York.
-- Growth in per capita income will generate up to a 30 percent increase in motor vehicle registrations in the Region and an even greater increase in freeway traffic.