Regional Plan Association Study Suggests Current Zoning Only Meets 45% of Housing Need; New York City and Surrounding Counties Need to More Than Double Current Zoning Capacity to Meet Future Housing Needs
New York, N.Y. (April 7, 2025) — Today, the Regional Plan Association (RPA), in collaboration with the National Zoning Atlas, released an extensive analysis assessing how the increasing risk of future flooding – triggered by both storms and sea-level rise – in New York City and surrounding communities can impact housing in years to come. The report titled, Averting Crisis: Zoning to Create Resilient Homes for All, underscores the urgent need for zoning reforms and supportive policies to address both housing and climate adaptation challenges across the study area of New York City and the suburban communities of Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester Counties.
Key Findings on Flood Risk:
With nearly one million homes and multifamily buildings in the New York City metropolitan area at high risk of flooding, the crisis is accelerating. Key statistics of the report find:
Approximately 78% of municipalities stand to lose housing due to flooding. 77,300 acres of residential-zoned land (10.5%) in New York City and its suburbs will face high risks of flooding by 2040. Up to 82,000 housing units would face significant risk of loss due to chronic and coastal flooding – potentially rising to 160,000 by 2070.
Suffolk County has the largest percentage of residential acreage exposed to flooding, with 37,800 acres – approximately 10 percent – vulnerable.
The highest percent of the potentially affected population reside in the urban core and regional downtowns, with about 63 percent of at-risk residents in higher-density urban areas.
- Of the 1.2 million homes RPA estimates will be needed to address current and prospective housing gaps, 362,000 of those housing units are to address immediate needs to address low-vacancy rates, strained affordable housing supply and transitioning residents from temporary shelters into more permanent housing.
Within the report’s area study, 150,000 people remain homeless, with the number of families experiencing homelessness nationally increasing by 39 percent from 2023-2024, according to HUD.
Utilizing a first-of-its-kind database of zoning laws created by the National Zoning Atlas, the gap analysis we’ve produced reveals a significant shortfall in residential zoning development capacity, which currently accounts for only 45% of the total housing needed by 2040. RPA suggests zoning capacity must increase by a factor of 2.2, or more than double.
“In the middle of an ongoing housing crisis facing metropolitan regions across the U.S., this report highlights the increased danger that climate-influenced flooding poses to communities,” said Tom Wright, President and CEO of Regional Plan Association (RPA). “To meet current and future demand, the region’s total housing needs could reach 1.2 million units by 2040. Our leaders must step up with bold and innovative policies and investments to address this challenge, before it becomes even worse.”
“Our climate and housing crises are deeply intertwined, and we can’t solve one at the expense of the other. Through smart and targeted interventions, we can make progress on them in tandem, and by doing nothing, both will only grow worse,” said Moses Gates, one of the report authors and Vice President of Housing and Neighborhood Planning at RPA.
“As the impacts of climate change–including flooding–continue to worsen, we cannot allow communities, already facing housing shortages, to be caught unaware or unprepared,” said Robert Freudenberg, Vice President, Energy & Environment at RPA, and one of the report authors. “By proactively planning for the realities of the future we’ve inherited, we can ensure that our region’s residents have safer and more resilient places to call home.”
“People deserve to understand the impacts of zoning on their lives and livelihoods,” said Sara C. Bronin, Cornell University professor and founder of the National Zoning Atlas. “This report, with its first-of-a-kind zoning buildout of key parts of the NYC metro area, illuminates how our land-use policies have to be much more responsive to our housing needs in the age of climate change.”
“This report transforms abstract climate risks into concrete policy opportunities,” said Patrick Beary, the Bruce H. Bailey Senior Director of Strategic Partnerships at the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability. “By supporting collaborative assessments like this one, Cornell Atkinson aims to ensure that all communities—especially those most vulnerable—have the data and tools they need to take meaningful action against flood risks while addressing critical housing needs.”
“The negative effects of climate change have made extreme weather a far more frequent part of life here in New York,” said New York State Homes and Community Renewal Commissioner RuthAnne Visnauskas. “The negative effects of climate change have made extreme weather a far more frequent part of life here in New York. As Regional Plan Association’s report makes clear, the impact of a warming climate is going to make our housing crisis more dire in the decades ahead without proper planning and direct action. At HCR, we are committed to building resilient communities that can better withstand major storms before they happen and we appreciate those who join our fight against both the climate crisis and housing crisis.”
“Our region’s housing and climate crises are inextricably linked and require cohesive strategies that put us on a better path to meet urgent housing and resiliency needs,” said the City of New York’s Executive Director for Housing, Leila Bozorg. “RPA’s Averting Crises report sheds important light on the realities our region will face in the years to come, and the realistic solutions that will help us manage both crises for the benefit and safety of all New Yorkers.”
“This report underscores the importance of tackling two of our biggest challenges—housing and climate change—together,” said DCP Director Dan Garodnick. “Through forward-thinking, coordinated action at the municipal and regional levels, we can continue to build the housing New Yorkers need and ensure that our communities are more resilient to climate risks.”
“There is no community in Westchester that hasn’t been directly affected by or heavily concerned by the now routine flooding from extreme weather events,” said Tim Foley, CEO of The Building & Realty Institute (BRI) and one of the Partners of the Welcome Home Westchester Campaign. “While some have used this as a cudgel to stymie efforts to address our housing shortage in favor of preserving the status quo, this new report by RPA demonstrates how dire the status quo is with regard to flood risk. Building multifamily housing where appropriate with substantially better infrastructure and stormwater management and a boost to local property taxes can help us deal with the twin crises of housing and climate resilience.”
Key Zoning Findings:
The report assesses policy solutions with a focus on zoning, as many municipalities, such as those within the New York Metro Area, can unlock residential development in locations with good transportation access, job opportunities, and limited flood exposure. Key findings related to our housing deficit include:
When looking at potential development of additional housing, zoning in the region only unlocks 45 percent of the housing needed by 2040. Potential areas for residential development will need to more than double to afford future needs.
- In Long Island and Westchester, over 95% of residential land is zoned to exclude multifamily housing, limiting development in transit-accessible areas that are less vulnerable to flooding.
Many commuter rail stations in these suburbs are located in predominantly white, affluent neighborhoods with restrictive zoning that discourages multifamily development, pushing new housing into high-risk flood zones.
Multifamily development with four units or more is only allowed on less than five percent of residentially-zoned land in the region’s suburbs; This is compared to the ability to develop the same type of housing on 61 percent of New York City residentially-zoned land.
Under current zoning regulations, New York City has the capacity to build-out approximately 386,000 housing units; the New York region’s suburbs have the capacity to build-out approximately 190,000 units.
To assess policy solutions and resiliency efforts to address flood risk and loss, the report emphasizes that a regional approach that accounts for changing conditions over time is required. By categorizing regions into four area types (high growth potential and low flood risk; high growth potential and high flood risk; low growth potential and low flood risk; and low growth potential and high flood risk), the report prioritizes policy needs for the study area.
A snapshot of suggested solutions – contingent on the area type – include:
Housing assessment programs that integrate climate risks and future population shifts, rather than relying on outdated benchmarks
Investing in transit-oriented development
The implementation of inclusionary zoning
Ensuring standards prioritize resiliency by updating building codes to withstand and recover from extreme weather
Green infrastructure that leverages natural systems and engineered solutions that manage stormwater, mitigate coastal flooding, and enhance resilience
Buyout programs that require the permanent removal of properties from high-risk areas
Comprehensive, forward-thinking assessments will be critical in guiding effective land use reforms. Likewise, proactive climate investments, including flood protections, updating infrastructure, and climate-smart policies, must be made to mitigate risks before disasters strike.
A coordinated effort between policymakers, urban planners, and community stakeholders is essential in fostering equitable and climate-resilient communities. By aligning land use policies with climate adaptation strategies, New York City and its suburbs can ensure that all residents, regardless of income or background, have access to safe and secure housing. If left unaddressed, this crisis will intensify housing scarcity, affordability concerns, and community displacement, further exacerbating social and economic disparities.
A full copy of the report can be found here.
