Who will live in New York City in 2040? Despite two consecutive mayors who put the creation and preservation of affordable housing atop their agendas, neighborhoods throughout New York City and the metropolitan region are experiencing a crisis of affordability. East Harlem in particular, a neighborhood characterized by diversity and opportunity throughout its history, is under threat. Over the next 30 years, East Harlem could lose from between 200 and 500 units of affordable housing each year if existing programs are not extended or made permanent. This report finds an estimated 4,121 units subject to affordability restrictions expiring between 2020 and 2030 alone that require active engagement between property owners and government agencies in order to maintain regulated rents. In all, one-fourth of the 56,000 residential units in East Harlem have affordability restrictions due to expire by 2040.

East Harlem is one of the first neighborhoods that will be rezoned as a part of Mayor Bill de Blasio’s plan to create and preserve 200,000 units of housing over the next 10 years. These rezonings will produce more affordable housing, but because East Harlem is a gentrifying neighborhood, aggressive protections for existing vulnerable residents will be critical in order to prevent displacement. The property-specific information contained in this report has been compiled to aid Community Board 11 and other community leaders in advocating for continued affordability in existing buildings. As East Harlem adds housing in the coming years, the community will need to be vigilant to preserve affordable units and ensure the neighborhood’s diversity to a range of incomes. While targeted efforts can protect the existing stock of affordable housing, in the long term, broader solutions to provide permanent affordability will be warranted.

Those include more effective rent regulation, the modification of existing programs to require permanent affordability, the use of land lease agreements on publicly owned land, the creation of sustainable community land trusts, and the production of more affordable housing. In anticipation of East Harlem’s rezoning, a coalition led by the office of New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito, community group Community Voices Heard and Community Board 11 requested RPA’s continued support and technical assistance as they developed their own neighborhood plan for East Harlem. Participants included more than 100 community-based organizations, more than 500 community residents, and over a dozen city agencies. The city’s participation in the East Harlem neighborhood planning process was promising, but the incorporation of community priorities still needs to be negotiated.

This report follows a longstanding collaboration between Community Board 11 and Regional Plan Association, who have worked together over several years to identify and propose specific strategies to preserve affordable housing in the neighborhood. Previous work enabled Community Board 11 to intervene and preserve dozens of units, and for civic groups to join together to establish a community land trust. This report continues the collaboration, and contains a decade-specific analysis, putting the affordability crisis in East Harlem and New York City within its regional context where housing production is not keeping pace with demand.