Failure to complete the Gateway Program would increase air pollution; discourage companies and residents from remaining in the region; delay full recovery and limit the region’s economic potential
Report finds expanded capacity necessary to accommodate a 15% to 32% increase in Trans-Hudson transit ridership from pre-pandemic levels by 2050
New York, NY – At a critical moment for the future of travel, work, and population growth in the New York City region, a new report by Regional Plan Association (RPA) finds that the Gateway Program – the nation’s most urgent infrastructure project – is a necessary component of the region’s economic growth and environmental sustainability, and any further delays in its implementation will have a detrimental impact on the region’s recovery.
The report, entitled Gateway and the post-COVID Economy: Scenarios for Future Growth and Trans-Hudson Travel, finds that the expanded Trans-Hudson capacity unlocked by the Gateway Program–which includes the Hudson River rail tunnel–will be necessary to accommodate transit ridership that will likely be 15% to 32% higher than it was before the pandemic on peak weekdays by 2050 and exceeds pre-COVID levels by the time the Hudson Tunnel Project is scheduled to be completed.
Despite the acceleration of remote and hybrid work during the pandemic, the report shows transit ridership will continue to increase beyond what current capacity can accommodate. In every scenario RPA modeled within the report, ridership exceeds pre-COVID levels in a transit network that was already well over its intended capacity. Without Gateway, the New York region would not be able to compete with others where travel is easier and transit service is more attractive and comfortable. Air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions would be higher as more people chose to drive and live farther from transit-oriented centers.
The report cites five primary reasons for the inevitable uptick in ridership:
First, even with a slow return to office and modest job growth, the number of commuters will increase over the decade or more it will take to complete the new tunnel.
Second, a large proportion of commuters will still need to commute to places of employment five days per week.
Third, non-work trips—for school, medical appointments, shopping, family visits and entertainment—have been, and will continue to increase faster than work trips.
Fourth, continuing a strong trend of the last 30 years, Northern New Jersey, the origin of the vast majority of Trans-Hudson riders, is expected to continue to be the largest source of new housing in the region outside of New York City.
Fifth, Trans-Hudson car crossings are already operating at pre-COVID levels and freight trips exceed pre-COVID levels, meaning there is little to no extra capacity at the bridges and tunnels to accommodate an increase in demand.
“It has become clear that the region’s recovery and future prosperity hinges on bold investments in infrastructure and transit like the Gateway Program and Penn Station,” said Tom Wright, President & CEO, Regional Plan Association. “We need to invest in these once-in-a-generation projects so that we have the capacity and systems in place for commuters of tomorrow while creating thousands of jobs to help boost the entire region’s economy today. That includes getting all Gateway Program partners to finish the full funding grant agreement for the Hudson Tunnel Project done without further delay, avoiding the catastrophic impacts to the economy that a partial-shutdown of the North River Tunnel would entail.”
The report finds that any delay in starting or completing the new Hudson River rail tunnel will seriously impede the tri-state region’s economic recovery by:
Discouraging companies and residents from remaining in the region;
Deferring the 83,000 jobs that would come with the construction of the tunnel and replacement of the Portal North Bridge;
Delaying improvements in New Jersey Transit and Amtrak service reliability and on-time performance, and;
Increasing the risk of a catastrophic shutdown of one or more of the two existing tracks before a new tunnel is built.
In addition, as sea levels rise and the region begins to see the real impacts of climate change in the coming decades, Gateway will help curb greenhouse gas emissions by reducing reliance on cars, improving air quality and reducing suburban sprawl by encouraging more transit-oriented development, even if work-from-home increases fourfold from pre-pandemic levels.
“Support for investment in public transportation, including Gateway, has never been higher, and the need for additional, and safer, capacity has never been more urgent,” said Carlo A. Scissura, President & CEO, New York Building Congress. “The Northeast Corridor (NEC) contributes up to 20 percent of our nation’s GDP and more than $3 trillion in annual economic output. Economic engines served by the NEC include 32 percent of Fortune 500 Company headquarters, 30 percent of the nation’s 4-year colleges and universities, and 20% of U.S. jobs. Given this, Gateway will be the most transformative infrastructure project in the metropolitan area in generations. And the New York Building Congress stands strongly behind breaking ground on it as soon as possible. Our member organizations and their workforces simply cannot wait to get moving on Gateway and give relief to our area’s overburdened and aging transit infrastructure.”
“At a pivotal time for New York City’s economic recovery, residents, commuters, and tourists deserve safe, reliable, and environmentally sound infrastructure,” said Melva M. Miller, Chief Executive Officer, Association for a Better New York (ABNY). “We must pull all levers available to ensure that capacity will meet the demands of future New Yorkers, all the while providing quality job opportunities to bolster the economy today during planning and construction. As RPA’s latest report indicates, the Gateway Program must move forward to safeguard the future vitality of New York City and our region.”
“With Gateway, we’d make an important statement to the business community that we believe in the New York and New Jersey region and that we’re committed to our future,” said Michael McGuinness, Chief Executive Officer, NAIOP NJ. “Completing Gateway is critical to providing a more reliable transportation system that serves not only commuters, but simultaneously promotes critical economic development.”
“Our Coalition, representing the four counties and numerous municipalities along the Raritan Valley Line of New Jersey Transit, continues to strongly support the expeditious completion of the Gateway Project, as we have for many years,” said Bruce Bergen, Chairman of the Raritan Valley Rail Coalition. “With the continued growth of Transit Oriented Development in many of the towns along the line, the number of our residents who will be traveling to and from New York is only going to grow. Our member municipalities have embraced the concept that creating housing in proximity to public transportation is beneficial to the municipalities, the environment and to the new residents. It is long past the time for the transit system to be upgraded to accommodate the development that has and will continue to take place. Whether the new ridership is for business or pleasure, the RPA study makes clear that use of public transportation will continue to grow, and the need for the new tunnels and the reliability and increased capacity that comes with them, remains a top priority.”
“CIANJ knows that reliable infrastructure is critical to our region’s economy which is why we have been strong proponents of the Gateway Program from its inception,” said Tracy Schoenberg, Executive Vice President, Commerce & Industry Association of New Jersey. “The RPA’s findings in this study clearly show the need and importance of Gateway not only now, but in five decades from now when our grandchildren and great-grandchildren will be benefiting from the foresight of the program’s leaders to encourage economic and regional growth while improving quality of life with shortened commuting times for generations to come.
“There is much that is still unknown about commuting and work patterns in the near future, but this report emphasizes a key concept: the system was operating well beyond capacity for years,” said Felicia Park-Rogers, Director of Regional Infrastructure Projects with Tri-State Transportation Campaign. “The Hudson Tunnels and the whole Gateway Program are key to securing our region’s economic future and long-term success; they are key to ensuring that people can move about our region safely, efficiently, and with ease.”
“New York City cannot drive its way out of the climate crisis, and we need bold, transformative public transportation projects that will support the needs of our millions of residents, commuters, and visitors so that we can achieve our greenhouse gas reduction goals,” said Julie Tighe, President of the New York League of Conservation Voters. “RPA’s new report shows that even in the post-COVID economy the Gateway Program is still a critical infrastructure project that will get people out of automobiles and onto public transit, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving local air quality.”
“RPA’s report on the importance of Gateway to the future economic health of the New York-New Jersey metropolitan region – and beyond – serves to reconfirm and reinforce the urgency that needs to be brought to bear to get this critical project underway, and done!” said Robert Wessels, Executive Director, General Contractors Association of New York. “Every day without a shovel in the ground delays its benefits for millions along the Northeast Corridor, and risks inflationary pressure on the unprecedented federal infrastructure funding brought to the table by Senator Schumer. We are nonetheless reassured that both states, as well as Amtrak and the Gateway Development Corporation, are working in earnest to negotiate MOUs that will accelerate the process – and we anticipate an expeditious resolution.”
“We know transportation is the number one contributor to greenhouse gases in New Jersey, and it is well past time to build the Gateway project. Clean, affordable public transit will help reduce emissions, improve air quality, and tackle our climate crisis,” said Ed Potosnak, Executive Director, New Jersey League of Conservation Voters. “Furthermore, the Gateway project is necessary to provide equitable, reliable public transit for those who don’t have a personal vehicle, including essential workers who have responded valiantly throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.”
