The current state of the electrical grid in New York is uncertain–the upstate region, while reliable now, is seeing potential for large load growth leading to reliability shortfalls, and the downstate region faces significant reliability challenges starting as soon as summer, 2026. Generator deactivations combined with aging infrastructure and rising demand are forecast to significantly reduce margins and cause deficiencies within the electrical system. To continue to provide reliable and affordable electric service, planned generation–including solar, battery and energy storage, and offshore wind projects–and new transmission must be completed and put in service. Planning for future projects (including offshore wind transmission as considered in PPTN) should also move forward to ensure the state can quickly bring offshore wind power to the grid once federal roadblocks are lifted.

Despite these challenges, New York’s grid operator (NYISO) has made good efforts to plan for the future while coordinating with the state and utility companies through a series of comprehensive planning reports and processes. Within the state, the Con Edison distribution system is robustly reliable, outpacing every utility in the state and many across the country. Outside of New York City, the utilities are still reliable, but face issues such as aging infrastructure or vegetation management, putting Con Edison in a league of its own. Despite the robust reliability within the Con Edison service territory, the system faces challenges with aging generation and lack of new resource additions, at a time when demand for electricity is growing. The territory is also marred by congestion of electricity flowing downstate from upstate, leading to higher electricity prices for downstate New Yorkers. Outside of New York City, there is a significant amount of infrastructure over 40 years old, and in need of upgrading/replacing.

The majority of information in this article was sourced from reports published by the public sector, NYISO, and utility company websites. That information was supplemented with interviews with utility companies and other entities.

Governance

New York’s electricity transmission system, or ​“grid”, is unique in that the grid operator that manages the system, the New York Independent System Operator (the NYISO), only manages the grid within New York State. The only other states that have a similar structure are California with CAISO and Texas with ERCOT.

The utilities in New York at the state level are regulated by the Public Service Commission (PSC). The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) studies, invests, and promotes elements of the clean energy economy, including infrastructure, through incentive programs, requests for information/proposals, and studies. Federally, utilities and NYISO are overseen by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), and at a regional level by the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), who work with NERC. NPCC works directly with utilities and other stakeholders in collaborative meetings throughout the year.

Generation

New York is both an energy importer and exporter, buying and selling power to and from Canada, PJM (New Jersey and 12 other states), and ISO-NE (New England). New York generates a significant amount of electricity in-state - as of May 2025 natural gas makes up the largest portion of New York’s electricity generation, accounting for 39.3%, or 3,926 thousand MWh out of 10,001 thousand MWh. Following natural gas, nuclear energy ranked second, accounting for 24.8% of all generation, with hydroelectric closely behind, accounting for 24.4% of all generation. Nonhydroelectric renewables (including solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind) accounted for 11.5% of electricity generation. Despite this, hydroelectric and nuclear energy represent a much smaller share of the state’s total generating capacity, compared to natural gas. Natural gas represents a much higher share of generating capacity versus actual generation due to the amount of peaker plants that use natural gas as a fuel. Power plants, both peaker and baseload, that use solely natural gas only consist of about 12% of existing capacity, however power plants that use natural gas and oil consist of about 50% of existing capacity.

New York has ambitious climate targets, set in place by the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) of 2019. Through the CLCPA, New York State has mandated that 70% of its energy needs must be met with renewables by 2030, and that the grid must completely decarbonize by 2040, setting goals of 9,000 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2035, 10,000 MW of distributed solar by 2030, and 6,000 MW of storage by 2030.

Over the next ten years, summer capability (amount of power available to meet peak load) is projected to increase from 40,909.7 MW in 2025 to 52,917.3 MW in 2035, including 11,444.6 MW of total additions, mostly from solar and wind (offshore and land-based), and 1,199.2 MW of deactivations, mostly from oil and gas turbines. The winter capability is expected to increase as well, from 42,628.6 MW to 53,128.1 MW in 2035.

Transmission

New York has over 11,000 miles of transmission lines, moving power from over 450 generating stations, through substations, to the homes, businesses, and critical facilities that make up our communities. New York produces most of its own power, although it purchases some from its neighbors, including from PJM, ISO-NE, and Canadian system operators IESO and Hydro-Québec. NYISO and PJM have several points of interconnection accounting for over 3,500MW of interconnection, including two underwater cables, the 660 MW Neptune line connecting Sayreville New Jersey to Long Island, and the 660 MW Hudson Line, connecting Hudson County, New Jersey to New York City. Canada and New York have nearly 3,000 MW of interconnection, and New York and ISO-NE have just over 2,000 MW of interconnection. New York is currently experiencing a generational expansion of the transmission system, however more needs to be done to meet future needs.

Distribution

New York’s distribution system is managed by individual utility companies, including Central Hudson Gas & Electric (CHG&E), the Consolidated Edison Company of New York (Con Ed), New York State Electric & Gas Corp (NYSEG), National Grid, Orange & Rockland Utilities (O&R), PSE&G Long Island (PSEG-LI), and Rochester Gas & Electric Corp (RG&E). The Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) contracts PSEG-LI to manage the grid on Long Island. Several New York Municipalities have their own electric utility companies as well. The New York Power Authority acts as a utility company to public entities, businesses and electric cooperatives.

State of the grid

Despite the challenges New York’s electric system faces, system reliability is currently sufficient. The two key reliability metrics, System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) and System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI), reflect this. In 2023, New York’s SAIDI was 120 minutes per year of interruptions and its SAIFI was 0.725 interruptions per year per customer. These numbers include major outage events. Most of New York’s utilities opt to use the Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI) instead of SAIDI for individual service area reliability metrics. Despite this, much of the existing non-transmission infrastructure, like power plants and distribution wires, were built in the postwar economic boom of the 1950s and 1960s, with some infrastructure from over a century ago.

That reliability may come into question in the short-term–as soon as summer 2026–driven largely by generator deactivations and increased demand. The downstate region (Lower Hudson Valley, New York City, and Long Island) are particularly affected by generator deactivations due the age of the existing generation fleet as well as policy and economic challenges. Planned projects, including offshore wind, are critical to maintaining system reliability. If those planned projects are not completed, the region could face significant reliability issues, including blackouts.

Rates

As of June 2025, New York had the eighth highest average electricity price in the country at 26.53 Cents per Kilowatt hour (kWh). Compared to the rest of the region, Connecticut’s electricity prices were 27.24 Cents per kWh, and New Jersey’s prices were 24.88 Cents per kWh - although New Jersey’s electricity rates increased significantly starting June 2025.

Electricity rates in New York are broken down into two categories: wholesale and retail. Wholesale reflects the cost of energy itself (fuel prices, etc.), market dynamics (supply and demand), and transmission constraints such as congestion. Retail reflects the supply charges that local utilities charge as well as transmission and distribution costs, operational costs, and taxes. Utilities also include a portion of their profit margin in the electricity bill that covers investments in new and aging infrastructure.

At the grid operator level, NYSIO operates a capacity market, called the Installed Capacity Market (ICAP), that procures power for peak times. Unlike ISO-NE and PJM, NYISO holds seasonal auctions twice a year, once for the summer period and once for the winter period.

Starting this year, several utilities will be increasing their electricity rates. This includes Con Edison, NYSEG, National Grid, and Rochester Gas & Electric. Reasons cited include the need to invest in aging infrastructure, capital costs to build new infrastructure, as well as other upgrades including extreme weather protections.

Ensuring that the grid remains reliable, resilient, and responsive to changes in supply and demand requires sound planning and continuous investment. NYISO, the state regulators, and the independent utility companies have all been proactive planners and investors in New York’s grid, but need to accelerate planning and investment to keep up with rising demand.

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is one of only three Independent Service Operators or Regional Transmission Organizations in the United States whose service territory encompasses only one state. The NYISO, like all other ISOs and RTOs, conducts transmission planning research and operates the energy markets in New York as well as maintains strict reliability standards for grid assets.

The NYISO produces several major annual reports regarding the grid as part of its Comprehensive System Planning Process (CSPP). These include the Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA), which identifies potential reliability threats in the future; the System & Resource Outlook, which forecasts the outlook of the system over the next 20 years, identifying potential resource development and highlighting potential opportunities for transmission investment; the quarterly Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR), which looks at near term needs and projects; and the Public Policy Transmission Planning Process (PPTP), which develops transmission needed to achieve state policies.

Through the Public Planning Transmission Process, the NYISO identified several Public Policy Transmission Needs (PPTN). The PPTN is then evaluated and selected by the PSC. Recent PPTNs include the AC Transmission PPTN, Long Island Offshore Wind Export PPTN, and NYC Offshore Wind PPTN. The AC transmission PPTN sought to reduce congestion when moving power from upstate to downstate New York, and is considered in two segments: Segment A, a 350 MW increase of transfer capability in the Central East interface and Segment B, a 900 MW increase in transfer capability from Upstate to downstate New York. For the Long Island PPTN, the Propel NY Energy Project was selected. This project will connect Long Island with New York City and Westchester County. The New York City PPTN was designed to bring clean offshore wind energy into New York City. However, in July 2025, the Public Service Commission pulled the PPTN for New York City citing federal uncertainty around offshore wind and responsibility to ratepayers.

Other reports include the Power Trends report, which lays out potential threats to the grid and pathways the state can advance the grid and the Load & Capacity Data Report (“Gold Book”), which forecasts current and future electricity needs in multiple scenarios.

State Entities

The main state entity that affects the grid in New York is the Public Service Commission (PSC). The PSC regulates the state’s utilities by setting rates and ensuring they provide adequate service. They also preside over siting of major utility infrastructure such as transmission facilities. As previously mentioned, they work closely with the NYISO to identify, evaluate, and select projects critical to grid reliability through the Public Policy Transmission Planning Process.

The PSC determines whether or not a project goes forward through its Article VII process, which is a full review of the environmental impact of the siting as well as the design, construction, and operation of the project. Currently, the PSC is reviewing 31 mostly electric projects, with some gas. These projects include line and substation rebuilds as well new lines and substations. There are currently seven approved projects with construction ongoing or soon to be commencing. These projects include two land-based wind interconnections, two offshore wind interconnections, the Champlain Hudson Power Express, the O&R underground transmission line 705, and the Smart Path Connect Project. Other notable projects with applications under review include the Queensboro Renewable express and Propel NY Energy. The Commission also recently approved 29 other critically needed eclectic infrastructure projects, totaling 642 MW of upgrades.

In April 2024 the Renewable Action through Project Interconnection and Deployment (RAPID) Act enacted a new Article VIII process entitled Siting of Renewable Energy and Electric Transmission. Article VIII is similar to Article VII, but focuses solely on renewable energy and the transmission infrastructure that moves it. Most active applications are for solar generation facilities, although there are a few on-shore wind facilities.

Aside from the Article VII process, the PSC conducts studies on the grid. Recent examples of these studies include the Grid of the Future Study, which looks to advance Grid Enhancing Technologies and customer savings, and the Proactive Planning Proceeding, which looks to proactively develop grid infrastructure to support building and vehicle electrification.

The PSC works closely with the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA) to establish incentive programs to advance energy infrastructure and customer savings. Recent examples of these programs include the approval of the Energy Storage Implementation Plan, which seeks to deploy 1.5 GW of retail energy storage and 200 MW of residential storage by 2030 to contribute towards the state’s 6 GW goal, and the Energy Efficiency and Building Electrification Program, which will advance energy efficiency and building electrification to support low-to-moderate income

Aside from issuing incentives, NYSERDA’s main functions include issuing solicitations for projects or for information on potential projects and conducting research on advanced energy and energy efficiency. NYSERDA released and evaluated New York’s offshore wind solicitations, leading to the selection of a number of offshore wind projects and the commencement of construction of Empire Wind and Sunrise Wind. Other recent solicitations include NYSERDA’s request for proposals looking to procure one gigawatt of bulk storage.

Con Edison has a unique service territory - it encompasses both New York City, the largest and most densely populated city in the country, as well as Westchester County, which ranges from dense cities to outer suburbs. Due to this wide range of place types, Con Edison’s distribution system is made up of two separate systems - a network system for the dense urban areas and a radial system for the remainder of the service territory. Over 80% of Con Edison’s infrastructure is underground, making the system nine times more reliable than the average utility in the United States. Con Edison has such strong reliability metrics that the DPS evaluates state reliability both with and without Con Edison. The utility’s SAIFI index in 2023 was 0.12 interruptions per year, and the CAIDI index was 2.62 hours per customer, including major storms. Con Edison’s service territory requires this heightened reliability - New York City is home to hundreds of financial institutions, tech companies, small and large businesses, and communities that require 24/7 reliability.

To manage this system, Con Edison has 490 miles of overhead transmission lines and over 800 miles of underground infrastructure. The utility has 40 transmission substations, operating at 40 kV and up, and 63 distribution substations, operating at 13 kV and up. Con Edison has transmission ties to PSEG-LI, NSEG, and CHG&E. This abundance of infrastructure creates a dense, mesh network that is highly reliable, albeit expensive to maintain due to the underground equipment and differing voltages.

In the wake of Superstorm Sandy, Con Edison significantly upgraded their system. They sectionalized much of the system, breaking the grid down into smaller parts. This is beneficial when there is equipment failure or other outages, as it affects a smaller population than without sectionalization. Part of the sectionalization process is replacing long underground cables with shorter cables, which also makes repairs easier.

Con Ed recently completed $2.35 billion in upgrades to the system, and has several projects in the works, including four new substation projects, one of which is located near JFK airport. The Public Service Commission recently approved Con Edison’s climate resiliency plan, which includes significant upgrades. These upgrades have to do with storm hardening and extreme weather preparedness and are based on climate science as well as recent extreme rain and coastal storm events. Proposed upgrades include submersible or raised equipment, weather tracking and monitoring, flood walls or moats, and construction of stronger utility poles. They are also working to install mass metering, as a way to get hyper local data for better monitoring of equipment and local weather events, such as heat islands.

Con Edison is taking major planning steps as well. With extreme weather events becoming more frequent, the utility has to plan for increased rain and heat, and plan their investments accordingly. At the same time, demand is increasing and Local Law 97, the law requiring buildings to meet emissions standards, is going to effect, leading to electrification of heating. Electric Vehicles are also becoming more popular, and ⅔ of all new construction in Con Ed’s service territory is looking to have all electric heating or EV charging installed. In anticipation of electrification, the utility is preparing the grid to handle the increased load and ensure electricity is available for those who want it.

Other Utilities

Con Edison is by far the most reliable electric utility in the state, so much so that the PSC reports the state reliability both including and excluding Con Edison. When excluding Con Edison (and including major storm events), utilities statewide in 2023 had a SAIFI index of 1.19 interruptions per year and a CAIDI index of 2.79 hours, compared to a SAIFI index of 0.72 interruptions per year and a CAIDI index of 2.77 hours with Con Edison included. A complete breakdown of each utility’s reliability metrics can be found below.

Outside of New York City, the largest source of interruptions to the distribution system is tree/vegetation contact. To combat this, the upstate utilities all have comprehensive vegetation management programs to reduce the amount of vegetation surrounding transmission and distribution infrastructure. Tree contact has become such a large problem at NYSEG that the Public Service Commission approved an expansion to their vegetation management program.

After tree contact, the second highest source of interruptions is due to equipment failure. All utilities are working on resiliency plans which include infrastructure hardening, tree removals, and updated circuit designs. PSEG-LI has had significant challenges with equipment interruption in the last few years, including underground cable failures, burned lines, and substation equipment failures. To address these issues, the utility has put in place several programs to address reliability concerns. These include the Circuit Improvement Program, which identifies and repairs faulty power lines; the PowerOn Program, which involves storm hardening upgrades and targets circuits with poor performance; and the Multiple Interruption Program, which targets areas where customers have experienced several sustained interruptions in the last year.

Aside from standard reliability maintenance projects, several New York utilities are working on larger projects to ensure long-term reliability within the transmission and distribution system. NYSEG has 27 projects across 15 counties that include upgrading and reconstructing substations, lines, and circuits, as well as projects to build new substations. RG&E, owned by the same parent company as NYSEG, has 26 projects across four counties that fall under the same categories as NYSEG’s projects. RG&E is also working on the Rochester Transmission Project Enhancement, which will install new transmission lines throughout the City of Rochester.

Central Hudson has three significant projects, including a reconstruction and upgrade of nearly 100 year old transmission lines, a replacement of an 80 year old substation, and an upgrade to a 105 year old hydroelectric power plant. PSEG-LI currently has 14 active reliability projects, which upgrade, replace, or reconfigure several transmission and distribution lines and utility poles. Orange & Rockland have one major project currently–building a new, $20.5 million substation in New City, that will alleviate heavily loaded infrastructure.

In 2024, National Grid announced its Upstate Upgrade plan, which entails investing over $4 billion to reinforce and upgrade over 1,000 miles of transmission lines and 45 substations, and to install technologies to reduce outages from extreme weather. National Grid is also working on the Smart Path Connect Transmission Project, a joint venture with NYPA. This project will expand the recently completed Smart Path as well as the Central East Energy Connect Project by rebuilding 100 miles of transmission infrastructure, including replacing poles and upgrading or replacing substations.

The New York Power Authority (NYPA) is a unique entity within New York State. Founded in 1931 by then-Governor Franklin Roosevelt, NYPA acts as a statewide utility, developer and energy generator. NYPA provides power to state and local entities as well as businesses, non profits, community electric systems, and rural cooperatives.

In January 2025, NYPA released their Renewables Strategic Plan, following the 2023-24 State Budget which expanded its authority to include renewables. This plan lays the groundwork for the addition of 3 GW of renewable energy generation. NYPA already generates 22% of the State’s power, with the majority coming from hydropower - the addition of 3 GW of renewable energy will expand NYPA’s footprint and bring New York closer to a 70% clean energy system.

To improve the overall reliability of the system and prepare the grid for the influx of renewable energy, NYPA is working on several transmission lines, both as the sole developers as well as in public-private partnerships. Projects where NYPA is partnered with a private company include the Propel NY Energy Project, where NYPA is partnering with New York Transco and the Smart Path Connect Transmission Project, with National Grid. NYPA was working on the Clean Path Transmission Project with energyRe and Invenergy, however the developers terminated the contract in December 2024 due to the loss of the renewable energy credit associated with the project. The project attempted to continue on with NYPA as the sole developer, however the PSC rejected its petition to be deemed as a Priority Transmission Project (PTP). Other recently completed projects include Central East Energy Connect, Smart Path, and the Long Island Cable Reconductoring project.

NYPA recently announced that they will be expanding their portfolio and looking to develop an advanced nuclear reactor.

Developers

Independent developers are responding to signals from the state and the NYISO to fulfill the Public Policy Transmission Need. While NYPA is working on their own project with the Clean Path, they are also partnering with New York Transco on the Propel NY Energy Project. The Propel NY Energy Project bolsters the transmission backbone of Long Island, connecting it with New York City and Westchester County. The project includes new and upgraded substations as well as new and upgraded underground and submarine transmission lines. This line will reduce congestion in energy transmission to Long Island, creating a more reliable and efficient system. Transco recently finished the New York Energy Solution project, which replaced 80 year old equipment and improved congestion of energy from upstate to downstate. Transco has installed monitoring technology on their new cables, which is used to remotely monitor the health of the lines. This type of technology has higher upfront costs, but leads to cost savings due to efficient operations and maintenance.

Another major project looking to fill the reliability need identified by the NYISO is the Champlain-Hudson Power Express (CHPE), developed by a partnership between Transmission Developers and Hydro-Québec. CHPE will connect New York City to a hydroelectric power plant in Québec, delivering 1,250 MW of power directly into the City through underground and underwater cables. CHPE is expected to be in-service by May 2026. The project is much anticipated by the NYISO, as it is projected to fill a short term reliability need in New York City.

There are currently two offshore wind farms currently under construction in New York, and one in operation. South Fork wind commenced operations in May of 2024, and has consistently been supplying New York with 132 MW of power for the last year. Sunrise wind is under construction 30 miles east of Montauk and is expected to deliver 924 MW of clean energy by 2027. Empire Wind is under construction 15 miles south of Long Island and is expected to deliver 810 MW of clean energy directly into the New York City grid by late 2026.

Despite New York’s generational expansion of the transmission system, more work needs to be done to ensure long term reliability. In conversations with utility companies and other entities, as well as research into studies and reports, some future concerns about the grid were identified, and are summarized below.

NYISO Concerns

The NYISO highlights several concerns throughout its reports. The Reliability Needs Assessment and the System & Resource Outlook both act as ​“state of the grid” reports, identifying current and potential future needs in the system, relating to demand, transmission, and system resources.

The 2024 RNA identified reliability needs within Zone J, or New York City, starting summer 2025. This means that the resource margins (supply and demand) become so slim that there is a high possibility of outages. This margin slims even further where there would be no surplus power by 2034 if no new generators were to come online. The RNA forecasts that Zone J will be deficient in 2033 by 17 MW for one hour and increase to nearly 100 MW for three hours by the following year during the summer peak. The reliability need is caused by a combination of increased forecasted demand both from large loads and electrification, retirements of gas plants, and unavailability of winter natural gas used for heating. It recommends new generation, retention of planned retirements, transmission expansion, energy efficiency, and demand response as possible pathways that can be used to improve system reliability. System wide, the RNA predicts that the loss of load expectation will increase close to 0.1 event-days per year by 2034, with no surplus power remaining, and that there may be observed transmission facilities overloads statewide. The RNA also discusses the influx of new large loads - the NYISO currently has 19 large load projects looking to interconnect for a combined total of over 3 GW These large loads include data centers and the Micron NY Semiconductor manufacturing plant. November 19, 2024. The draft of the 2025 RNA (set to be finalized late 2025) revises some of those predictions while also offering some additional information.

According to the updated RNA, one-quarter of the state’s total generating capacity is fossil generation older than 50 years. Despite this, the 2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan identifies no reliability needs, with the Zone J reliability need mentioned in the 2024 RNA has been resolved through updated forecasting of the baseline demand forecast. In the draft RNA, NYISO acknowledges the limitations of evaluating system reliability with a single forecast, as it does to reflect that range of possible combinations of growing demand and system conditions. According to the 2025 Power Trends report, demand could increase by an additional 4 GW by 2030 and that New York will shift from a summer peaking system to a winter peaking system due to electrification. The updated RNA shows that large load project demand increases to over 10 GW to be in service by 2031, with the average project size nearing 300 MW.

The System & Resource Outlook has several findings that point to a decreasing reliability in the grid over the next few decades. One such finding is that electric energy consumption is expected to increase 50-90% by 2045, mostly driven by building and vehicle electrification and siting of large loads. Large loads can also worsen existing constraints if sited near congested lines. To meet the increasing demand, the Outlook found that the state will require three times the amount of generation that it currently has, up to 130 GW by 2042, and to meet that demand the state must coordinate new generator additions with generator retirements.

The outlook also mentions that when building new generators, particularly renewables, transmission expansion must be completed with the generators or the system could risk inefficiency. CHPE will help meet some of these short term needs, but as our system switches from a summer peaking system to a winter peaking system, caused by building electrification, there is some concern that CHPE may not be able to provide as much power to New York, instead providing it to its home country of Canada. As the grid switches to renewable resources and supply margins decrease, interregional transmission of energy will become more complex and difficult - but at the same time, more valuable since grid operators can take advantage of a greater diversity of resources. This will require New York to have even more back up power, as it may not be available in other regions. Overall, new, distributed energy resources such as wind and solar must be deployed along with storage. At the same time, the transmission system must be expanded and dynamic reactive power support (STATCOM) along with other Grid Enhancing Technologies must be installed.

In the NYISO’s most recent Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) for the 3rd Quarter of 2025, the ISO identified several reliability needs through 2030, with significant reliability concerns starting summer 2026. The identified reliability needs stem from a rise in forecasted peak power demand, planned transmission upgrades, and changes to the generation mix. This reliability need differs from the one brought up in the RNA as it focuses more on short-term reliability and factors in potential delays for planned projects. Generator deactivations in New York City and Long Island can potentially significantly impact short-term reliability, particularly for those regions as well as the Lower Hudson Valley. Planned projects, including the CHPE line (in service May 2026), Empire Wind (in service July 2027), Sunrise Wind (in service July 2027), and the Propel NY Transmission project (in service May 2030) are critical to remediating this reliability need and any delay or cancellation of these projects could have drastic impacts on the state of New York’s grid.

New York has one of the oldest fleets of steam turbines in the country, with the average age of a turbine in New York city being around 65 years old - this in itself poses a potential future reliability need. As aging generator units retire and other fossil fuel power plants retire due to the NYSDEC Peaker Rule, new forms of generation such as offshore wind are critical. Reliability needs are most seen near the Narrows (Staten Island), Gowanus (Brooklyn), and Far Rockaway (Queen) service areas, with both generator and transmission needs. While planned projects will fill the short term reliability needs, the rising demand will force the state to continue to invest in the transmission system as well as continue to build new, renewable energy to prevent reliability margins from slipping once again.

The anticipated load growth is unprecedented. The NYISO’s annual long term load forecast predicts that in 2025, New York will need 151,720 GWh in a low demand scenario, 152,400 GWh in a baseline demand scenario, and 153,170 GWh in a high demand scenario. By 2055, those numbers grow to 209,970 GWh, 244,100 GWh, and 353,000 GWh respectively, accounting for a 1.28%, 2.01%, and 4.35% average annual growth - an unprecedented amount of year over year growth.

Con Edison

Con Edison shares similar concerns for the grid as the NYISO - decreased supply, increased demand, and extreme weather as well as energy affordability for its customers. Con Edison, much like other utilities, attempts to balance investment needs with customer affordability, and has a number of assistance programs to help facilitate those goals.

Con Edison is forecasting that their peak load will double over the next 25 years, brought on in part due to electrification of buildings and vehicles. The electrification of heating in particular will likely push the utility to become a winter peaking utility by 2044. This shift is not unprecedented, but has not happened in over 50 years. When air conditioning was invented and becoming commonplace between the 1950s and 1970s, the utility experienced a shift from a winter (Christmas Eve) peaking system to a summer peaking system. In response, the utility moved to a system that could tolerate two failures and still supply load to the system. The system has changed before and it will change again.

Another major concern is commonplace across the country - deactivation of existing generation. The NYISO predicts that there may be a reliability need in New York City by 2033 due to the lack of supply. CHPE and Empire Wind will fill some of that reliability need, but the loss of future offshore wind projects creates uncertainty for the future. That planned supply will have to be made up elsewhere.

Extreme weather, particularly heatwaves, are an increasingly greater concern. In June 2025, New York City was hit with an intense heat wave, with the heat index hitting 108 degrees in some parts of the city, a record high. The system saw some equipment failures, and a (very) small portion of customers in Brooklyn lost power. The existing infrastructure was not built to withstand a heat index so high, leading to some overloading. Utilities have investment levels that are set to accommodate the maximum amount of load on the hottest projected days, and over building that is costly to ratepayers - it is difficult to balance affordability and reliability when it comes to extreme heat.Con Edison is committed to working with policymakers to keep energy affordable for all, especially for its most vulnerable customers. Two areas of advocacy the utility is prioritizing are 1) working with the State to continue to fund and expand utility Energy Affordability Programs (EAP) and 2) raising awareness on the impact of New York City’s property taxes on customer utility bills. Con Edison is advocating for changes to that tax structure to deliver immediate and impactful bill relief to millions of utility customers.

As property taxes on energy infrastructure are an operational cost for utilities, they are incorporated in the delivery costs. In New York City, energy infrastructure has its own property tax class (Class 3), which represents a high share of the total citywide tax revenue compared to its market value (6% of total revenue compared to 3% market value). These costs are passed through to ratepayers.

Con Edison is currently going through a rate case proceeding with the Department of Public Service, where it is seeking an increase in annual delivery revenues equal to 18% of base delivery revenue or 11.4% increase in total revenue. This equates to a 13.4% increase on the total bill for customers using 600 kWh per month. The primary drives are property taxes, new infrastructure investment, and operating expenses. This, however, was updated in a joint proposal filed November 6, 2025 which updated to a total revenue increase of 2.8% for electric and 2.0% for gas, which equates to an increase of about 3.5% for electric customers. This reflects the negotiation process between Con Edison and the NYSDPS as well as public input and a hearing on the joint proposal is scheduled for early December.

Developer Concerns

Developers of electricity infrastructure see similar issues that utilities and the NYISO are seeing - more generation is needed to meet supply and the aging grid is rising costs and could pose a significant reliability issue in the future.

To meet the rise in demand, new sources of power generation will be needed. Right now, the grid is functioning as it should be, but as demand increases, reliability may be compromised. The state has ambitious goals for manufacturing and AI, which will bring economic development, but that comes at a cost when no new generation and transmission infrastructure is added. That is further compounded by the age of the grid. As previously mentioned, most of the grid infrastructure was built over 40 years ago, and New York did not start working on major grid projects until 2018. Developers are working with the state and utility companies to build out the necessary transmission infrastructure, but face significant hurdles.

There are large regulatory barriers needed to get through before a project starts construction, including siting and permitting, including the Article VII process. Outside of regulatory requirements, there are necessary safety requirements from NERC that need to be met. There is also significant local opposition to new transmission projects, often stemming from misinformation or disinformation, as well as NIMBYism. There is also a hesitance from consumers to build transmission projects–new projects are paid for by ratepayers, and with high energy and transmission costs already, it can be difficult to convince people a project is worth the cost. Despite this, new transmission projects are necessary to avoid future brown outs and black outs, and investing in transmission now will reduce overall costs in the future.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Con Edison and New York Transco for speaking to us in relation to this Lab post.