New York City’s plan to develop the Hudson Yards represents the latest in a succession of visions for the Far West Side of Midtown Manhattan. From RPA’s first regional plan in 1929 to Senator Charles Schumer’s Group of 35 report in 2000, this district has been viewed as Midtown Manhattan’s “last frontier” for major commercial expansion.

The City’s plan is different, however. Its scope, level of detail and the priority attached to it by the Bloomberg administration make it far more likely to result in major new development over the next several decades. In addition, with recent commercial development in West Midtown and the increasing attractiveness of West Side residential neighborhoods, development of the Far West Side now requires a smaller leap of imagination. While the plan’s inclusion of a new sports facility and expansion of the Javits Convention Center have drawn the lion’s share of the attention, the proposed zoning changes and investments in infrastructure and public spaces are likely to have a much greater long-term impact on the city and the region.

The plan has been praised for the scope of its vision, but has also raised questions and opposition from different quarters. Besides the stadium, the questioning revolves around three primary issues. Will there be sufficient office demand and likelihood of success to justify the public expenditures and rapid timetable? Will the density, land use and activity changes be harmful to existing West Side communities from Clinton to Chelsea? And will development of the Far West Side complement or compete with plans for other parts of the city, especially Lower Manhattan and ancillary business districts in the other boroughs?

Most of this debate has taken place within the confines of New York City’s political, business and civic communities. This paper will attempt to broaden this discussion by looking at the Far West Side in its regional context. The potential role of the Far West Side as an asset for the entire metropolitan area has been largely ignored to date. Indeed, one of the main justifications asserted for the district is that it will allow New York City to compete for office tenants that would otherwise go to New Jersey, most notably the Hudson County waterfront. While development of the West Side may increase the city’s share of regional economic activity, different outcomes are possible. If demand and regional competitiveness are sufficient, Far West Side development could lead to additional growth in New Jersey and other parts of the region as well as within New York City, but have little effect on the city’s proportion of the metropolitan economy. If the right economic conditions do not materialize, it could increase the city’s share of the region, but have no impact on jobs and income for the metropolitan area as a whole, and only modestly increase employment in the city.

To provide a framework to discuss specific proposals for the Far West Side, the paper begins with an overview of the Manhattan Central Business District’s contribution to the regional economy. It will then discuss how the goals for the Far West Side fit with the region’s long-term needs for both office space and housing, and how the district might complement or compete with objectives for other parts of the region, particularly Lower Manhattan, New York City’s other boroughs and the Hudson County waterfront.