A Proactive Vision for Equitable Managed Retreat

Presently, climate change is driving global displacement and migration, a trend expected to exacerbate as it permanently inundates land, making retreat inevitable, whether it is managed or forced for survival. In 2022, the number of individuals displaced internally in the United States by disasters surged to 543,000 marking a stark contrast from the 37,000 recorded in 2019. This number is set to only increase in the future. By the year 2100, as many as 13.1 million individuals could face displacement due to a six-foot rise in sea levels. It not only upsets individual households but can negatively affect states and cities as employment rates suffer, housing prices skyrocket, and economic stability is threatened. The intricate dynamics between climate migrants and receiving communities often exacerbate social and economic factors while constraining migrating people’s choices on where to live and work. Case studies reveal that access to affordable, reliable transportation influenced not only climate migrants’ resettlement patterns but also many aspects of their economic opportunities, housing, health care, and overall quality of life. While initial receptivity may prevail among receiving communities, resource constraints often lead to tensions, portraying migrants as competitors for basic needs and resources. Consequently, climate strategies can be implemented in phases over time to limit new development, provide strong incentives and support to communities for relocation. A paradigm shift in our attitude towards climate change is necessary to adopt proactive pre-disaster strategies for managing retreat effectively.

Moreover, while managed retreat is often viewed as the last resort in response to extreme events, improvement of buyout programs and assistance in relocation can encourage vulnerable communities to move to safer grounds. This approach emerges as the most reliable means to ensure safety in contrast to other strategies such as seawalls and levees that may yield a false sense of security, ultimately undermined by failures in interventions. The case for strategic and managed climate retreat focuses on a critical approach of incorporating retreat into long term planning frameworks. This complex strategy necessitates collaborative efforts, and is particularly challenging when considering environmental justice and low-income communities. It is essential to carefully address inquiries regarding affordable housing, equitable distribution of costs and benefits, and access to livelihoods, particularly focusing on the fact that more than 50% of the around 1.3 million NYC residents in or directly adjacent to a floodplain are both low-income and identify as non-white.

This capstone project, for Regional Plan Association, examines opportunities along transit hubs, particularly along the proposed IBX in Brooklyn and Queens. Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a sustainable planning strategy that can facilitate this transition and reduce the risk of climate displacement. The commonalities between core principles of TOD and the major challenges faced by climate migrants like reliable transportation, affordable housing and employment opportunities with other co-benefits makes it the best suited option. The Interborough Express (IBX), a proposed transformative light rail project from Bay Ridge, Brooklyn to Jackson Heights, Queens, presents an opportunity to serve underserved areas and connect vulnerable communities, with TOD along the corridor facilitating strategic development and managed retreat for nearby neighborhoods.