A Build-Out Analysis for Nassau & Suffolk Counties

From the Queens border to the William Floyd Parkway, the landscape of Nassau and western Suffolk has been almost completely transformed by 60 years of suburban development. Except for a dwindling area in eastern Suffolk, most land is covered by residential homes, office parks, shopping districts, industrial uses, or highways. Even on the East End, a growing population and evolving economy are changing the character of the Island’s remaining agricultural areas.

As a result, the era in which Long Island could grow its economy and population by building on green, undeveloped land is coming to an end. This change raises several questions that the Island’s citizens, villages, towns and elected officials will need to address. How important is it for the Island to accommodate new residents, new jobs and new residential choices for existing residents? How much growth can the Island absorb in the years ahead? Which undeveloped land should be protected and which should permit new development? Are there other ways to expand the economy and housing choices and still maintain the Island’s suburban character?

To answer these questions, it’s important to understand where we are headed. Using a widely used land use forecasting model, Regional Plan Association and the Geography Department of Hunter College have projected how quickly Long Island’s remaining land would be developed if current trends continue. The maps and information that follow tell a story of Long Island’s likely development over the next generation. It can be read as either the concluding chapter of the Island’s emergence as America’s first post-war suburb or the opening chapter of a tale describing a new pattern of growth and development.