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Intercity travel is at the core of an increasingly interconnected and competitive global economy. Without the ability to efficiently transport business and leisure travelers and time-sensitive cargo, both domestic and international business would grind to a halt. Since virtually all long-distance travel is by air, along with a high proportion of shorter distance travel between cities, metropolitan economies depend on their ability to provide high quality airline service to multiple destinations. This is especially true for world city regions like the New York metropolitan area that are even more dependent on industries with a high propensity for flying. In New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, the leading economic sectors - financial and business services, tourism, pharmaceuticals, media and communications, higher education, research and development - all rely on frequent air travel to multiple destinations. Indeed, the region’s status as a nexus for domestic and international air travel is intricately linked to its role as a premier center of global commerce.

In 2011, Regional Plan Association (RPA) published a report, Upgrading to World Class: The Future of the Region’s Airports, concerning the future of the airports in the New York region. The impetus for this prior effort was rampant congestion and delays at our three major airports - Kennedy, Newark, and LaGuardia - that ranked them at the bottom among the nation’s airports and threatened the region’s economic vitality. In addition, the FAA had just imposed slot limits on hourly flights at all three airports. While slots were effective in reducing delays, they also placed a hard cap on air traffic growth and prevented airline competition, meaning fewer flight options and higher fares. Without growth in airport capacity, connectivity will degrade over time and without additional airline competition, prices for air travel will inevitably rise. The 2011 report cited the cost of delays at approximately $1.7 billion annually for passengers and another $1 billion cost to the airlines. Many other costs not easily measured also add to the economic impacts.

The objective of RPA’s examination was to look at the prospective demand for air travel and how well it could be accommodated by the airports and the airspace system and what might be done in combination to lower demand or increase the ability to service it. At the time the report was issued passenger volumes were just beginning to emerge from the negative impacts of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. RPA projected air passenger growth, converted it to operations at peak times at the three airports and compared it to runway capacity to determine how much added runway capacity at each of airports was needed to achieve different levels of delay reduction. Various actions were then explored to either reduce peak demand at the airports or expand capacity to narrow the gap between demand and supply. To reduce demand RPA examined a) the potential commercial role of other smaller airports in the region -- principally Stewart International in Newburgh and Long Island MacArthur in Islip, b) the possibility of an entirely new airport in the region, c) the ability of improved high speed rail service to shift passenger demand to an alternate transportation mode, and d) pricing or other administrative measures to encourage a shift or travel to off peak times. Implementing technology-based capacity improvements in the air traffic control system - collectively known as NextGen - was also examined as such improvements could lead to more efficient and frequent landing and takeoff operations.

The analysis concluded that many of these measures would incrementally help to narrow the gap between supply and demand, but the gap would not close without the addition of runway capacity at the three airports. Further, RPA developed some potential alternatives to develop additional runways at Kennedy and Newark airports and also concluded that there were no practical or feasible additional runway opportunities at LaGuardia.

Subsequent to the release of the report six years ago, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PA), the operator of the three major airports, sought to confirm the results of our work, and if its findings were consistent with ours, investigate in more detail how additional runway capacity could be constructed at JFK and EWR. To date that work has not been completed and no plans to expand capacity have been generated by the agency. Instead, the PA has begun to reconstruct the terminal facilities at LGA. While this will improve service and the customer experience, it will have only a marginal impact on airside capacity. The PA is expected to announce plans soon for JFK that may or may not address the need for additional runways.

In light of these developments and as part of its Fourth Regional Plan, RPA has revisited the analysis and findings of its 2011 study, updating it with recent air passenger and operations data and other developments that may have occurred in the interim. This study also takes a fresh look at improvements at all the region’s airports with a focus, once again, on the big three commercial air passenger facilities.

Improving New York’s connectivity to other cities is essential to maintaining New York’s competitive position in today’s global economy. The region’s airports are the “front door” to New York; they must serve air travelers without inordinate delays and meet the need for anticipated growth. There is increasing concern that without sufficient capacity at the region’s commercial airports, FAA slot limits along with other constraints would engender reluctance among existing businesses to remain in the region or grow here, discourage businesses contemplating locating in the region, and reduce tourism. In addition, existing delays and low levels of air service reliability would continue making air travel even less desirable for residents of the region.