Segregation and Opportunity in the Region's Housing

To give some indication of the magnitude of racial segregation throughout the Region, this study first measures the degree to which each census tract differs from the regional average of racial balance, both in total numbers of families and according to income level. Obviously, it would not always be possible or desirable to achieve this average ​“balance” throughout the Region. The idea of community and neighborhood may imply some racial imbalance. Still, the concept of every census tract having the same proportion of black families can be used as a statistical yardstick to measure the degree to which the races are, in fact, separated.

Racial separation in the Region is very strong: less than 10 percent of all census tracts are racially ​“balanced,” that is, have about the regional average proportion of black families (9 to 17 black families per 100 total families). Blacks are substantially under-represented in more than 70 percent, and substantially over-represented in about 20 percent of all census tracts. In 1970, nearly two-thirds of the Region’s black families suitable cost in the existing stock throughout the Region could, in a relatively short time, relieve segregation. Since there is an average of 13 black families for every 100 families in the Region, the concentration of black families in any one area would never be great enough to encourage racial ​“tipping,” if they were able to buy or rent in all parts of the Region where moderate-cost housing now exists. Negative aspects of racial change, which some moderate-income white areas fear, would be relieved if that change were diffused throughout the Region.

The third part of this study scales the amount of buildable vacant land within a 30-mile radius of New York City, where new medium-density, moderate-cost housing could be built. In contrast to existing housing, the contribution to equal op­portunity that can be made by new housing is small. The annual increment of new housing in the Region is less than 1 percent of the existing stock. Still, an expanded supply of new housing may offer new choices of location and reduce pressures in the housing market that contribute to discrimination.

This study is based on 1970 data, and whether segregation in the Region increased or decreased since then cannot be determined with certainty until after the 1980 Census. Preliminary 1976 data suggest that despite localized racial shifts, little change has taken place at the regional scale. Between 1970 and 1976, only 3.8 percent of the Region’s black population shifted from central cities to the suburbs. Thus, the overall findings of the study remain valid despite the time lag.