Key findings and recommendations
The project evaluated five policy options using available public data and assumptions for how drivers would respond to the changes in incentives and requirements embodied in each alternative. It also conducted a scan of other urban highways, both in New York City and elsewhere, that were either permanently replaced or temporarily had traffic reduced either through reduced capacity or policies that restricted traffic.
The results should be considered order-of-magnitude estimates that should be tested and evaluated with more detailed analysis and traffic modeling. However, the findings strongly suggest that these policies, some individually and others in combination, could reduce traffic enough to accommodate remaining demand with fewer lanes than the existing six-lane highway.
- The congestion pricing plan recently approved by the New York State legislature could, depending on how it is implemented, remove enough cars and trucks from the relevant section of the BQE to allow remaining traffic to be accommodated with a four-lane highway.
- Requiring cars on the BQE to have three or more occupants during peak periods could also reduce traffic sufficiently to accommodate remaining traffic with a four lane highway.
- Two other policy changes—reinstating two-way tolls on the Verrazano Bridge and requiring cars to have three or more passengers when crossing the free East River bridges— would have less impact but still reduce traffic significantly.
- A smaller highway should still be considered, even if these policies would not reduce traffic sufficiently to accommodate all remaining demand with a four-lane highway. Other cities have transformed urban highways to achieve neighborhood and regional benefits without substantially worsening traffic.
Based on these findings, we recommend three actions that would create the conditions for an improved BQE that maximizes benefits for the city, state and affected neighborhoods:
- The congestion pricing policy approved by Governor Cuomo and the legislature should be designed to maximize traffic reduction on the BQE and other roadways. In addition to the wider benefits of reduced congestion, increased funding for transit, improved air quality and public health, this is one of the most potent policy tools for reducing traffic on the BQE.
- New York City DOT should further evaluate the potential impact of policies described in this report and proposals beyond the current alternatives as part of the Environmental Impact Statement. NYC DOT should also establish an independent advisory group using expertise of top architects, transportation experts, community leaders and urban planners to advise the process.
- New York State should be an active partner with New York City to implement demand management policies and reconstruct the highway to achieve the best outcomes for residents of the city and state.
What This Report Is
This report evaluates a range of policies that could reduce the amount of passenger and commercial traffic on the BQE, potentially reducing the number of traffic lanes required both during and after reconstruction.
What This Report Is Not
This report does not lay out an “alternative” that can be reviewed in the environmental review nor does it offer a specific design proposal.
Reconstruction of the BQE represents a particular challenge. Its traffic volumes are particularly heavy and its physical constraints are many. While New York City has assumed the burden of repairing the highway, many actions to manage or divert traffic would need state or federal approval.
History
The BQE was built starting in 1944 by Robert Moses. Like other urban highways, construction was controversial because it cut through city neighborhoods and displaced residents. In the 1940s and 1950s, the Brooklyn Heights community fought Robert Moses and the government’s traditional six-lane highway design. A concession to appease opponents was a highway with a smaller width and in an unusual three deck structure. The design allowed a park on top, which became the iconic Brooklyn Heights Promenade. The BQE has since become one of the most heavily used urban highways in the nation, and serves a vital transportation corridor. As Brooklyn’s only interstate highway, the BQE is subject to federal as well as state regulations.
The triple cantilever has not had a major rehabilitation since it was constructed decades ago, and concerns are growing about its safety. From 2006-2011, New York State Department of Transportation initiated a process to evaluate alternatives to fix the roadway. That process was terminated in 2011 due to budget constraints, although it’s likely that strong community opposition also played a role.
![BQE triple cantilever](https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/300/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-triple-cantilever.jpg?bossToken=08ff4e5bde2833afb58c2de56a1402da41f1f45c8c81005122800ffe1a0678a0 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/600/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-triple-cantilever.jpg?bossToken=05e46936192ee2c150af828c76b264964c6edcf6e28d369cf1e302e5eecba1d8 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/900/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-triple-cantilever.jpg?bossToken=de76d23a41fde82a9f0aa21c960e7113406bcaeeda7cb390ccc04f75623a55fe 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1200/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-triple-cantilever.jpg?bossToken=ce4f86bf29b1aff2d76a9c2cae143604daa324ab57e4656bda5f34c224d8ab86 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1500/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-triple-cantilever.jpg?bossToken=d50c7156b8f43ec9b08f51859db1a9c939959b1b45aa733b72b10a525c09761c 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1800/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-triple-cantilever.jpg?bossToken=3ff351abfb69ad63a70e3ee649412169cd67a4ff2c09fa24662d6c0ea7cfe0e3 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2100/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-triple-cantilever.jpg?bossToken=2f93dec19cb14330cec6f197ba9226750da36f765a0a148539b3c84506d5f307 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2400/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-triple-cantilever.jpg?bossToken=04cc13f8a59a9c27490f6566915b9935e0a69ae107e10d92b509320a559d57c3 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2700/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-triple-cantilever.jpg?bossToken=b943a52801ef4b0ffd69411f1c63c5b3e8d86e3c28924770e5d193c1dbf4226b 1543w)
The triple cantilever
A triple canteliver supports the BQE on two lower levels and the Brooklyn Heights Promenade on the top level.
NYS DOT did not move forward with the project, and in 2014, worried about the condition of the road, NYC DOT started its own project to rebuild the highway. NYC DOT has worked since to develop a manageable, doable solution that minimizes impacts.
NYC DOT now estimates that the highway is so deteriorated that trucks may need to be banned from the roadway in 2026. It estimates that the roadway may not be safe for any vehicular travel as soon as 2036.
The project is complicated and very expensive, expected to cost between $3 and $4 billion, making it one of the most expensive projects in the NYC capital program. NYC DOT has authority to repair the roadway using Design Build, but the Request for Qualifications needs to be authorized by April 2020.
Current status
Throughout the world, cities are rethinking urban highways that were constructed in the middle of the 20th century to accommodate the automobile as the primary means of transportation. In hindsight, the mistakes and excesses of many of those decisions are clear, from dissected neighborhoods to increased air pollution and traffic-related deaths and injuries. Yet we continue to live with the consequences of those decisions decades later. Rehabilitation and new construction projects present opportunities to correct some of these consequences.
Today, cities from San Francisco to Milwaukee have taken down many of these freeways, turning them into boulevards or smaller highways, and to the surprise of many, without worsening traffic.
While evidence is mounting that removal of highway lanes results in reduced traffic and seldom results in the kind of congestion that is frequently feared, the phenomenon is not well understood. This makes it a difficult option to pursue without understanding the context for particular projects, but one that deserves consideration for the BQE. Some past examples, both in New York City and elsewhere, provide outcomes to consider when thinking about rebuilding this segment of the BQE:
![BQE shutterstock 222283555 By M Shcherbyna](https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/300/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-shutterstock_222283555_By-M.-Shcherbyna.jpg?bossToken=85cea92260c236306fdfdc974f7a5f8b472c01898da80070394ee1d29caec953 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/600/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-shutterstock_222283555_By-M.-Shcherbyna.jpg?bossToken=b4ef18d004e64b23ef8be4a342167ace03900b28ab629d6eb6d4be484a5d8d37 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/900/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-shutterstock_222283555_By-M.-Shcherbyna.jpg?bossToken=53731e0741f5cc2b53d8e7df2fd421e7f715745c4bd696d3c056068ba082e8de 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1200/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-shutterstock_222283555_By-M.-Shcherbyna.jpg?bossToken=080b11f5d88cc460aecc110c0762da2ecb4e609c5b0e091d339557fb5e5eb1fd 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1500/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-shutterstock_222283555_By-M.-Shcherbyna.jpg?bossToken=9431fc928759cef683b942120d4c1732b477115ad9928105648bfab7e3ef6b9a 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1800/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-shutterstock_222283555_By-M.-Shcherbyna.jpg?bossToken=dfe1eb1587642230844a0fa080c6f24fc1bdc7fb42758bcc6eb11d60434c3c7e 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2100/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-shutterstock_222283555_By-M.-Shcherbyna.jpg?bossToken=a0229dec72bf3ad83abe537bb81df55f2ac3eb5428a7d033d56da5cc4020ae30 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2400/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-shutterstock_222283555_By-M.-Shcherbyna.jpg?bossToken=a199072581e1dab49bba427e0f38e45463b5958caeff17acc68a4ce53cf7b957 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2700/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-shutterstock_222283555_By-M.-Shcherbyna.jpg?bossToken=49c2e83c3eda3482b42de50ab12b029cf360d915facde26130febcdf3d92aa57 1543w)
Williamsburg Bridge
After determining that the Williamsburg Bridge was no longer safe, NYC DOT closed it to all traffic on April 11, 1988. The bridge was reopened—for cars only—on May 27. The average daily traffic of approximately 107,000 vehicles was absorbed into the system . Data are not available showing how the traffic was dispersed, but based on annual bridge traffic reporting, it appears that about half the displaced traffic was accommodated on the Queensboro Bridge. It is unlikely that most of this traffic was shifted to the Manhattan Bridge, as that bridge (Manhattan), experienced a drop in traffic in the same year and continued to show decreases in the year after. It is possible that some individual trips that had been made on the Williamsburg Bridge did shift to the Manhattan Bridge, but those individual trips would have displaced trips from the Manhattan Bridge as more trips were shifted away.
We were not able to obtain historic data on the Manhattan Bridge’s status but speculate that the decrease in traffic on the Manhattan Bridge, at that time, was due to lane closures associated with bridge repairs. Since 1982 the bridge has been in a near constant state of repair with 15 repair contracts awarded –the latest for $80 million—between 1982 and 2018. While the city has experienced significant population growth since the 1980s, the example still provides an example of the effect of reduced highway capacity.
![BQE W Side Highway shutterstock 158311106 Ritu Manoj Jethani](https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/300/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-W_Side_Highway_shutterstock_158311106_Ritu-Manoj-Jethani.jpg?bossToken=e6bc12014d5fdb365b91e2f849239261df05aeee50229252670bcb475162304b 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/600/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-W_Side_Highway_shutterstock_158311106_Ritu-Manoj-Jethani.jpg?bossToken=72ff3a7397b54c1de378c3009fc2cc1a20fedbeeb7306341166842897fdc8b4c 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/900/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-W_Side_Highway_shutterstock_158311106_Ritu-Manoj-Jethani.jpg?bossToken=7cbfb7b40cda8b0c2785f3a62afa16966955cb70e63c7708214a98359cb38350 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1200/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-W_Side_Highway_shutterstock_158311106_Ritu-Manoj-Jethani.jpg?bossToken=e8a1d2e86679973df1c5a8bb038bcfe43ef44f0ca347e0974a019b07dc2699fe 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1500/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-W_Side_Highway_shutterstock_158311106_Ritu-Manoj-Jethani.jpg?bossToken=a8a722d322160362f76bdb8f2f6e381a6a77dcca09fe45b97328c3891d581ca0 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1800/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-W_Side_Highway_shutterstock_158311106_Ritu-Manoj-Jethani.jpg?bossToken=50937afc1b64ef0b2c1bfde59160f865ff8471a60991fad4f89cd34a48122c09 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2100/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-W_Side_Highway_shutterstock_158311106_Ritu-Manoj-Jethani.jpg?bossToken=0df4689fcd83bbff567d3cdbf3c248ad86b55e84c517bb144a0342fc8ff98a51 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2400/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-W_Side_Highway_shutterstock_158311106_Ritu-Manoj-Jethani.jpg?bossToken=fa88b1e00ab733ad3a4690db0e8f02cffd10f8762369e89a1f46df586d379109 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2700/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-W_Side_Highway_shutterstock_158311106_Ritu-Manoj-Jethani.jpg?bossToken=9237168168f8062838013fb7bd8d1cec20525b900382f8773c641a67b3978719 1543w)
West Side Highway
In 1973 part of the West Side highway collapsed under the weight of a truck. The highway, which had carried ~140,000 average daily vehicles was subsequently closed and de facto converted into a boulevard until an actual reconstruction project was completed. We have not been able to obtain specific traffic impacts due to the closure, but by one account 53 percent of the traffic formerly carried on the highway simply disappeared.
![BQE Embarcadero Freeway 15202819347 Brx0](https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/300/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-Embarcadero_Freeway_15202819347_Brx0.jpg?bossToken=1e2757ddf532c02fb45b4917a0144e0f555f1d4656aa918a4e7ded28909f310f 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/600/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-Embarcadero_Freeway_15202819347_Brx0.jpg?bossToken=13ed71bab95d0f08d69ca3c5fe90beed63cde11905be82abd040d335b97e6d79 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/900/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-Embarcadero_Freeway_15202819347_Brx0.jpg?bossToken=875179bfda1eb63d57cd91ea6c9635ec853062c1c5ef3f53b0bcf3a4e901c03b 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1200/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-Embarcadero_Freeway_15202819347_Brx0.jpg?bossToken=2547db9a6eaaae02d808b4c644bf22b5b550c67818b2c72e9ad719904346133d 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1500/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-Embarcadero_Freeway_15202819347_Brx0.jpg?bossToken=1e31ad8a938f473fc2b7df851f2961fba7ce2103bcc9c9d10b45c550ef729415 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1800/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-Embarcadero_Freeway_15202819347_Brx0.jpg?bossToken=f16c6e3eaab0c5c1cb5ff04f53f663affd936c390f7c8abd5ef91152392f5bae 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2100/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-Embarcadero_Freeway_15202819347_Brx0.jpg?bossToken=f5aa8c549af77c27a31d87bb9b7c326d0be75e0766bfc39df559ab8ee205a538 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2400/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-Embarcadero_Freeway_15202819347_Brx0.jpg?bossToken=685351768218116823fb780386b2d8d2ce38a4d78ed15250013891e801d38d01 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2700/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-Embarcadero_Freeway_15202819347_Brx0.jpg?bossToken=ef0df44d3374c70820d2582bac2695dcde5f5f33ef7a712981abe30b0d3974cc 1543w)
Embarcadero, San Francisco, CA
In 1989 the Loma Prieta earthquake severely damaged the Embarcadero freeway. The Embarcadero, which served over 100,000 trips per day, was replaced by a boulevard that carries about 70 percent of that traffic. In the time frame that the freeway was closed, removed, and reconstructed, public transit trips in areas defined as “impact zones” increased ~75 percent.
![BQE Mc Grath Highway 5875876736 47caa30334 o Todd Van Hoosear](https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/300/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-McGrath_Highway_5875876736_47caa30334_o_Todd-Van-Hoosear.jpg?bossToken=83239266234869cf1c5eb403c79f3d31e1231f45ed511ad7f6a463b6ad04cf68 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/600/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-McGrath_Highway_5875876736_47caa30334_o_Todd-Van-Hoosear.jpg?bossToken=4193aa454eba7428177305092af0bc23f40324c2598645c72f5e485cb9bbf7df 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/900/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-McGrath_Highway_5875876736_47caa30334_o_Todd-Van-Hoosear.jpg?bossToken=a9a8fd91a586247d1bc88ce49fdebf739727aecaedb6a501f4c4d6bde58bff14 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1200/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-McGrath_Highway_5875876736_47caa30334_o_Todd-Van-Hoosear.jpg?bossToken=e92f8b634c83a07f6bbf14f9448d85460e99ef6f1062846b275504e5c0d90e83 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1500/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-McGrath_Highway_5875876736_47caa30334_o_Todd-Van-Hoosear.jpg?bossToken=6e7001b0f5fba29a25c588388b67445707b033cfd1537a0b337dc03e02c060cc 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/1800/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-McGrath_Highway_5875876736_47caa30334_o_Todd-Van-Hoosear.jpg?bossToken=12dd8e599cd8213a4f275fb69eb6f7da5b3f8a4faa19d422fa8d7575da72c621 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2100/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-McGrath_Highway_5875876736_47caa30334_o_Todd-Van-Hoosear.jpg?bossToken=3353b494e3613a0023f0dd435d3115eb5cb367ec5bff2ac4b576cfe5937652e6 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2400/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-McGrath_Highway_5875876736_47caa30334_o_Todd-Van-Hoosear.jpg?bossToken=f7685f019259f419ec322df8e296a5d8d7f0c66bf3437e5aa9ab76e423980dad 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/width/2700/quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-McGrath_Highway_5875876736_47caa30334_o_Todd-Van-Hoosear.jpg?bossToken=07370431c19ff97b38883c171690460cff376ee2accf98c3711cead32a934aa6 1543w)
MacGrath Highway, Somerville, MA
When the MacGrath Highway was in need of repair, MassDOT decided to establish a working group to investigate options and advise on the possible design. Through a 15-month community and design process, MassDOT decided to “ground” a six-lane overpass of Route 28, and transform it into an at grade boulevard with four lanes of traffic. The process resulted in a selection of a four-lane boulevard design with pedestrian and bicycle improvements. MassDOT is currently pursuing environmental permits so it can start design and construction. While traffic volumes are much lower than the BQE, the community and design process could provide a model for the BQE.
Cities are transforming urban highways:
Paris - Georges Pompidou Expressway, which served 43,000 cars per day was transformed into a waterfront “beach” and pedestrian walkway. The Mayor tested a closure by temporarily closing the street to traffic in 2002. After an eight year period of closing the road temporarily, support for a permanent closure grew and he transformed the highway into a 35 acre park.
Seoul - Cheonggyecheon Freeway served 168,000 cars per day. It was torn down and is now a beautiful green space in the city and the city has increased transit significantly to accommodate traffic.
Seattle, WA - Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle was buried underground to open up waterfront space for parks and housing.
Rochester, NY - Through the Inner Loop East Transformation Project, this highway was converted into a boulevard with sidewalks and bicycle lanes.
Milwaukee, WI - Park East Freeway was transformed into a park and landscaped walkable boulevard.
![BQE paris plage CN Traveler](https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/300x300/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-paris_plage_CN_Traveler.jpg?bossToken=435d88bb91db436f506a43efec5c7e6406479351cba152d1eb25981cd9001c1f 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/600x600/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-paris_plage_CN_Traveler.jpg?bossToken=6514176d889440f95899ce3ceb915e84928872c7b5c7174a8c55c3be9367fb91 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/900x900/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-paris_plage_CN_Traveler.jpg?bossToken=5acd57710a6fa1b8d8c36c4972141ee09f4b74696fdcb3c17b9b3841fa5bef46 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1200x1200/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-paris_plage_CN_Traveler.jpg?bossToken=becd90e753d256a0102b4941b26de19a6c123637571c430e13ac36bda441c9d5 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1500x1500/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-paris_plage_CN_Traveler.jpg?bossToken=0d8c398f6d95a8e8c4dfb0db4ad55dfce99e2f938e427fb6a5b02f5abf38e551 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1800x1800/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-paris_plage_CN_Traveler.jpg?bossToken=53868041f8e404f7b519ccd0349700ec2729a802eaaf3cf2474575f5eb598bc3 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2100x2100/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-paris_plage_CN_Traveler.jpg?bossToken=35586ea3d84142f3e4670e8dc790aa411f9248aeff9c6ea05b1c5fc9e9602527 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2400x2400/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-paris_plage_CN_Traveler.jpg?bossToken=8faee2e699ba60a5e6d4cf20a7a5842f7e22015a148a4640b6ca249f1f616d64 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2700x2700/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-paris_plage_CN_Traveler.jpg?bossToken=b2e9ebd939cfdee43517a09ee670e1a0fed8b649768e70ecfd82ae41e2cfe47f 1543w)
photo: CN Traveler
This analysis describes the impact of potential policy changes on BQE traffic demand, particularly on the section from Sands Street to Atlantic Avenue that the NYC DOT plans to reconstruct. The objectives are to identify which policies have the most potential for reducing traffic, and whether any could reduce traffic sufficiently to consider a structure with fewer than six lanes, either permanently or temporarily while the section is under reconstruction.
In addition to these policies—congestion pricing, two-way tolling on the Verrazano Bridge, and two HOV alternatives—the potential impact of reducing this section of the BQE to a four lane highway without any related policy change is discussed.
These results were derived from spreadsheet analysis using publicly available data, including output from the Balanced Transportation Analyzer (BTA) developed by Charles Komanoff. Assumptions were informed by historic precedents, but in large measure rely on judgements for how drivers would logically respond to the restrictions or incentives embodied in each alternative. These should be considered order-of-magnitude estimates rather than more precise estimates that could be derived from highway network traffic modeling.
Existing traffic and lane requirements
Currently, the BQE serves around 31,800 vehicles in the 4:00 – 8:00 PM peak period, 15,300 eastbound and 16,500 westbound. Automobiles represent 91 percent of the eastbound vehicles and trucks makeup the remainder. The westbound vehicles are 93 percent passenger cars. Based on these conditions, and today’s mix of trucks and passenger vehicles, a BQE lane, at peak use, serves around 1,550 vehicles/lane/hour, i.e., that volume is currently served by the more heavily trafficked westbound lanes. For the purpose of this analysis, trucks are converted to their passenger car equivalent (PCE). Since trucks are larger and require more road capacity, a truck will usually count for more than one PCE. The number will vary by the type of truck.
The newly constructed BQE, including any temporary structure is likely to have an hourly lane capacity of 1,800 PCEs. This matches peak volumes in the traffic model used by NYC DOT and other transportation agencies, and is consistent with agency assumptions for a reconstructed highway.
BQE vehicle traffic in the 4:00-8:00 PM evening peak
Source: NYC DOT BQE Origin and Destination Study 2016 Appendix C
Policy scenarios
Of the scenarios described below, scenarios 1 and 3 would affect only trips that originate in or are destined for Manhattan, and the other three would potentially affect all the trips. Scenario 1, implementing the Fix NYC congestion pricing proposal, would reduce BQE traffic by both reducing overall traffic volumes into Manhattan and effectively equalizing the money cost (as opposed to the time cost) of entering Manhattan on all crossings. Scenario 2 examines the impact of two-way tolling on the Verrazano Narrows Bridge (VNB), thereby increasing the cost of eastbound travel from Staten Island and New Jersey. Scenarios 3 and 4 look at implementing high occupancy vehicle (HOV) restrictions on the East River crossings and the BQE, respectively. Scenario 5 describes lane reduction without pricing or demand management policies. In a system that already operates at capacity, a lane reduction will yield the amount of traffic that can be accommodated. There is no additional analysis required to support this conclusion. That would be considered unmet demand at the price point (time cost plus vehicle operating cost as there is no road use cost). What happens with this demand is a separate but important question.
While each of these scenarios estimates the traffic impacts of a single policy change, it may be desirable implement multiple policy changes. For example, congestion pricing is likely to have a greater impact on automobile traffic while two-way tolling on the Verrazano Narrows Bridge would have a larger impact on trucks. The scenarios also do not consider how improvements in transit or project design could help to further reduce traffic.
Scenario 1: Fix NYC congestion pricing plan
![BQE 01 Riders alliance D02 RQ Nb XQAA bh G](https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/300x300/fp-x:0.63,fp-y:0.33,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-01-Riders_alliance_D02RQNbXQAA-bhG.jpg?bossToken=641570c759c1bd38cb01dc5da23150b3c7380e2c8f2078ecff7af933523450b8 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/600x600/fp-x:0.63,fp-y:0.33,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-01-Riders_alliance_D02RQNbXQAA-bhG.jpg?bossToken=0315a611e1ad18e29013c54286df004c7fe9c197b2da4a0af8ecd7b80ca81dbf 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/900x900/fp-x:0.63,fp-y:0.33,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-01-Riders_alliance_D02RQNbXQAA-bhG.jpg?bossToken=581e3c4288887dfa6dacceb68e56106086494d480c735e040f5e794de31f48ae 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1200x1200/fp-x:0.63,fp-y:0.33,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-01-Riders_alliance_D02RQNbXQAA-bhG.jpg?bossToken=1b2bbb7de736d8d282fbbd2499be75942ae76a57daed455f8d7b7638b7195a9e 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1500x1500/fp-x:0.63,fp-y:0.33,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-01-Riders_alliance_D02RQNbXQAA-bhG.jpg?bossToken=332b1f03d1498ae31beb7ad5e22f03bbe34e5c69cdd0751dbaac2205af671e67 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1800x1800/fp-x:0.63,fp-y:0.33,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-01-Riders_alliance_D02RQNbXQAA-bhG.jpg?bossToken=1923fb59fdd6bc95a43131baf2a62872d2f748a5f4cc44d437e616a629969d6b 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2100x2100/fp-x:0.63,fp-y:0.33,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-01-Riders_alliance_D02RQNbXQAA-bhG.jpg?bossToken=64549c4c2fc446691b50295cedc5f96f8a304222db323d82a30e9e162ee434b0 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2400x2400/fp-x:0.63,fp-y:0.33,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-01-Riders_alliance_D02RQNbXQAA-bhG.jpg?bossToken=f81b6d5e71858e03993f5923267ed48bf88005bc3aadc0b7112c49d5dc2107fa 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2700x2700/fp-x:0.63,fp-y:0.33,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-01-Riders_alliance_D02RQNbXQAA-bhG.jpg?bossToken=31173bae48525f0f9887819f512673e54084148850fb50475732a620d7891834 1543w)
photo: Alina Shen and Riders Alliance
The historic agreement by Governor Cuomo and the New York State legislature to implement a charge for driving into the Manhattan central business district also provides a unique opportunity to manage traffic on the BQE. Many of the details for how the charge will be implemented are still to be determined, and these will have a significant effect on how much traffic is reduced on the BQE. This analysis uses recommendations from the Fix NYC Advisory Panel to estimate the potential effects of a congestion charge, understanding that the actual effects will depend on the implementation plan that is eventually adopted.
Modeling of current traffic in the section of the BQE that needs to be reconstructed shows that ~25 percent of the eastbound peak automobile traffic and nine percent of truck traffic is ultimately destined for Manhattan. Nearly half of this Manhattan bound traffic, or 12 percent of all eastbound auto traffic, originates in Brooklyn, accessing the highway at Atlantic Avenue or points further south. Manhattan bound autos from Staten Island account for ten percent of eastbound traffic and New Jersey origins account for an additional four percent. Westbound traffic originating in Manhattan comprises 20 percent of automobiles and 48 percent of trucks.
With the exception of those vehicles entering at Atlantic (about eight percent of total BQE traffic measured prior to the Cadman Plaza West exit), all the Manhattan bound traffic on the link bypasses the Hugh Carey Tunnel, formerly the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel (BBT). The Fix NYC Advisory Panel Report indicates that trips into the Manhattan CBD from all directions would be reduced by 13 percent if Fix NYC policies were to be implemented. That outcome aligns with the Fix NYC higher-range plan analyzed in the Balanced Transportation Analyzer (BTA). All of the traffic reduction should be expected to come at entry points, including the free East River bridges, that are currently un-tolled and, therefore, currently serving a disproportionate share of Manhattan bound traffic, i.e., little to none of the Manhattan bound traffic currently using a tolled facility is likely to divert or forego the trip. Hence, to achieve a 13 percent overall reduction there would be disproportionate reductions at the untolled facilities and little or no reduction at the tolled facilities.
This scenario assumes that the 13 percent traffic reduction would be distributed equally among the market segments that currently include free entry points, primarily from upper Manhattan into Midtown and from Brooklyn into Lower Manhattan. If there is a 13 percent reduction from cars using the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel and free East River crossings into lower Manhattan, and all of this came off of the free crossings, there would be a 17 percent reduction in traffic on the free crossings.
In addition, equalizing the tolls across the BBT and the East River crossings would remove the incentive for most drivers to by-pass the tunnel in favor of the Brooklyn and Manhattan Bridges. For some drivers, particularly those destined for Canal Street and its environs, the East River crossings might still be a preferred route. The limited street network on the Manhattan side of the BBT could also constrain the number of drivers taking this route. But for most passenger vehicle drivers and some truck drivers, passage through the BBT would be both viable and preferred.
The assumed diversion in this scenario would be between 60 percent and 80 percent of the remaining Manhattan bound auto traffic. A slightly lower range of 50 percent to 70 percent was used for trips originating in Manhattan, since the final destination for these trips is more dispersed. Some portion of the truck traffic can be accommodated in the Hugh Carey Tunnel but the tunnel restrictions are somewhat more constraining than the Manhattan Bridge restrictions. Without additional information, this scenario uses the arbitrary assumption that 30 percent of the existing truck traffic can and will be diverted.
In summary, the assumptions for this scenario are:
- A final congestion pricing plan approximating FixNYC recommendations is implemented, resulting in a 13 percent reduction in overall traffic realized as a 17 percent reduction on the East River crossings.
- Between 60 percent and 80 percent of the remaining Manhattan bound automobile traffic (eastbound) uses the Hugh Carey Tunnel.
- Between 50 percent and 70 percent of remaining automobile traffic with Manhattan origins (westbound) uses the Hugh Carey Tunnel.
- Buses and two and three-axle single unit trucks in both directions can fit in the tunnel and will use it in the same proportion as passenger vehicles.
The more conservative estimate of 60 percent diversion of trips with a Manhattan trip end yields an eastbound demand of 3,600 PCE vehicles/hour, and westbound 3,800. The higher estimate of 80 percent diversion yields an eastbound demand of 3,450 PCE vehicles/hour, with 3,600 in the peak (westbound) direction.
Trip reductions and diversions resulting from Fix NYC higher-range plan
(1) All BQE trips with starting or ending in Manhattan reduced by 17 percent (2) 60 percent of remaining Manhattan based trips diverted to BBT (3) 80 percent of remaining Manhattan based trips diverted to BBT
Only vehicles with a Manhattan origin or destination are affected by this policy scenario. Both scenarios would reduce traffic to approximate levels that could be handled by four lanes of traffic. Estimated trips in the low diversion scenario are ~200 trips/hour more than is comfortably accommodated in two lanes in the peak period. However, all of the estimates are approximate and would be within an error margin that warrants further analysis. Also, as described below, some level of unmet demand, or peak spreading could be accepted to meet other policy objectives.
Scenario 2: Two-way tolling on the Verrazano Narrows Bridge
![BQE 02 shutterstock 5658553 Io Foto](https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/300x300/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-02-shutterstock_5658553_IoFoto.jpg?bossToken=0a79e1f458bc86d0ae4b6d2c3cd2857ab5e618d382971ad20d33a20e492ba2d0 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/600x600/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-02-shutterstock_5658553_IoFoto.jpg?bossToken=fc0bfa4c589f86d038ecabecf58451e7e06d60a5c173bd1dda2d77915f2c2404 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/900x900/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-02-shutterstock_5658553_IoFoto.jpg?bossToken=31c2825ff76e38807ff390f56204d3bdfc3c88cd431ef0af5e5df2ce0e3332c8 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1200x1200/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-02-shutterstock_5658553_IoFoto.jpg?bossToken=1056348942518752fd65f27bc333774da8f9380d3635b2e5ea187131ae9ae5dc 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1500x1500/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-02-shutterstock_5658553_IoFoto.jpg?bossToken=a3275f115d6bf823430bd13c587dd02b710fb529e032b7a0965596aa2afc957d 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1800x1800/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-02-shutterstock_5658553_IoFoto.jpg?bossToken=0ecdb5930b7846b9a4df1509bd2a752c354e9ea4bb4f28597e4fcc5c38243d4d 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2100x2100/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-02-shutterstock_5658553_IoFoto.jpg?bossToken=9fae1bc560c7e64720eeb9d47cd8da49fdcff62283166392f6242625694e1477 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2400x2400/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-02-shutterstock_5658553_IoFoto.jpg?bossToken=65a23f2333d073dcca9c99f87cc963e41e9b15f95b784d8fb559fec6531863a6 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2700x2700/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-02-shutterstock_5658553_IoFoto.jpg?bossToken=a979a3400ffff9dde109ab30637942d3b3c54dc233937d0ea49c34139bfdfb38 1543w)
photo: Io Photo
Vehicles using the Verrazano Narrows Bridge (VNB) pay tolls only in the westbound direction (crossing from Brooklyn into Staten Island). This effectively discounts the trip from Staten Island to other parts of NYC, and the discount also applies to trips originating west of Staten Island. The table below shows the number of vehicles on the select link that utilize the VNB (in both directions). As expected, westbound trips –where payment is made—are fewer than eastbound trips. An equalization of the toll, i.e. charging half the total but in each direction, would shift some of the eastbound trips to other routes.
Verrazao Narrows Bridge Vehicles in Morning and Evening Peak
Source: NYC DOT BQE Origin and Destination Study 2016 Appendix C
All trips that traverse the VNB would be affected by a change in tolls, but this is a potentially small number, especially for automobiles. We assume that eastbound AM traffic corresponds to westbound PM traffic and vice versa. Eastbound traffic in the PM peak—3,340 cars and 680 trucks—would not be likely to fall below the volume of westbound traffic in the AM peak— 2,600 cars and 280 trucks. Vehicles that travel westbound are likely taking a symmetrical eastbound trip. Since they are already paying the toll, it is safe to assume that they will not alter their eastbound behavior if they pay the same amount with a two-way toll. If we assume that the difference between westbound PM and eastbound AM are price sensitive drivers that alter their morning and evening trips, then the number of automobile trips likely to be affected is ~750 (less than 200/hour). Truck traffic would not necessarily have the same symmetry. But even if all of those are diverted, the remaining traffic demand would exceed the level that could be accommodated by four lanes. Therefore, equalization of VNB tolls, in and of itself, would still require five lanes. However, it could be an important part of a comprehensive program of traffic management and would have other benefits, such as reduced truck traffic along Canal Street in Manhattan.
Scenario 3: HOV 3+ on the free bridges
![BQE 03 shutterstock 155391893 T Photography](https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/300x300/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-03-shutterstock_155391893_T_Photography.jpg?bossToken=818a0215990348f4cc5121331218b7086d32989c0068f436808a22481e2dd28f 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/600x600/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-03-shutterstock_155391893_T_Photography.jpg?bossToken=ff6b8a78b44d25c2abe5f5701f060524d2f2a49569ef0a73f6c71b2ea4f277ca 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/900x900/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-03-shutterstock_155391893_T_Photography.jpg?bossToken=e3b1d49ad17369476f2a0dbebb7a8d04ee751754bdb0b166d9424cceeb69378f 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1200x1200/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-03-shutterstock_155391893_T_Photography.jpg?bossToken=fa1302332d540a6ab601cbe557a70f30b4b6e155d425893b5c4057aa29eb0d7b 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1500x1500/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-03-shutterstock_155391893_T_Photography.jpg?bossToken=6870a61e78efb29f9882f6be965e7b900a8c90e717ffd48cc917a2d555200011 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1800x1800/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-03-shutterstock_155391893_T_Photography.jpg?bossToken=57ecf7736a22c6e15848cd9995e1e52aa58a459098442ceeb887ffa5dfeda0e1 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2100x2100/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-03-shutterstock_155391893_T_Photography.jpg?bossToken=115aad8287b02d5f2b2ef866c8f85854bc8e1480ec0a4ef2e2b3666675087e7b 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2400x2400/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-03-shutterstock_155391893_T_Photography.jpg?bossToken=4cecb6a158d4b702d7076f7e0e0a9a461ff0057886ee30e58183073712365d72 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2700x2700/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-03-shutterstock_155391893_T_Photography.jpg?bossToken=133905967556bf84f2f9a6b333911827362fac5d59e24d48a7fe37e0720e5404 1543w)
photo: T Photography
To estimate how much traffic would be reduced with an HOV restriction requiring at least three occupants per vehicle (HOV 3+), we used data generated from the HOV restrictions that were implemented following the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center. The is the most relevant precedent for estimating what might occur if similar restrictions were placed on the East River bridges today. Shortly after September 11, 2001, NYC DOT restricted the East River crossings to HOV 3+. The restriction was to maximize the system capacity while much of the subway system and part of the road system were not operable. Given the extreme reduction in system capacity, the impetus for the emergency measure was to accommodate as many person trips as possible in as few vehicles as practicable. Implemented on September 27th, and encompassing all access to the hub, the city experienced a 23 percent reduction in traffic below 60th street and a 30 percent reduction on the city’s bridges. On October 17th the restricted period was rolled back to cover only the “traditional” peak period 6am to 10am. The reduction in bridge traffic was re-estimated in October to be 23 percent (this could be due to increases in traffic due to more city functions recovering and/or to the reduced period in which the restriction was implemented). Also, at the time, local newspaper reports indicated that enforcement was relatively lax and the vehicle increase could be due to increasingly bold scofflaws.
Using the 23 percent peak period reduction after 9/11 as a benchmark, this scenario assumes that implementation of an HOV 3+ requirement will yield a 20 percent to 25 percent reduction in vehicle traffic over the East River bridges. Applying this reduction to the BQE traffic with Manhattan origins and destinations yields a peak period PCE demand of ~32,400 to 32,900 vehicles.
Scenario 4: HOV 3+ on the full length of the BQE
![BQE 04 shutterstock 1132718309 Edi Chen](https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/300x300/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-04-shutterstock_1132718309_EdiChen.jpg?bossToken=3960b500d2cca9a0c2f94523be7e9a24adc2ae668007ff47085ee3abf5a0834b 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/600x600/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-04-shutterstock_1132718309_EdiChen.jpg?bossToken=4454acdfb9db1690aa1fe3bb1c087a78311fec6543a71adb831350e2442126ca 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/900x900/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-04-shutterstock_1132718309_EdiChen.jpg?bossToken=9f8c91c1ec7efbc8f94245db364cf7df858a24e8a4485f89dd9866591965ab08 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1200x1200/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-04-shutterstock_1132718309_EdiChen.jpg?bossToken=bc3f5196fa83e9cb94466e5072dc9f8d2dcddc8b0d1293a4fd0fe7d2bd0410a1 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1500x1500/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-04-shutterstock_1132718309_EdiChen.jpg?bossToken=baf0131c8f9816c5c3df3e1d22d9418a8a65b0c880ac060d45a6aad76b21492f 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1800x1800/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-04-shutterstock_1132718309_EdiChen.jpg?bossToken=1808fbf6f3ee69a322f575688cabddb6631f43f91c3a834e5dd9a33c0f33d6df 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2100x2100/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-04-shutterstock_1132718309_EdiChen.jpg?bossToken=d10d6fec9640721186bbe544370d0947c9a969ba2a203d20523980f3df8c25ec 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2400x2400/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-04-shutterstock_1132718309_EdiChen.jpg?bossToken=0dc8e72ab19d832ca87edeeac6d6094129a9d589ff91c61885ef1e1b62a69cab 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2700x2700/fp-x:0.5,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-04-shutterstock_1132718309_EdiChen.jpg?bossToken=3f4956cd708a463a994b43cf9d30a599208a1c3725ab73cb1264691bc0668ea5 1543w)
photo: Edi Chen
An HOV restriction on the entire length of the BQE would affect all automobiles, not just those with a Manhattan origin or destination. Applying the same assumption used in Scenario 3 of a 20-25 percent reduction to BQE traffic yields a peak period demand of 27,500 PCE to 28,900 PCE vehicles. This level of traffic could be accommodated by four lanes. The impacts would obviously be wider as well, requiring carpooling for through traffic and along routes for which there are few transit options.
Trip reductions and diversions resulting from HOV implementation
Scenario 5: Lane reduction
![BQE 05 shutterstock 597828167 Mai justrace](https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/300x300/fp-x:0.99,fp-y:0.4,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-05-shutterstock_597828167_Mai_justrace.jpg?bossToken=c6da5d30e6f69dbdfb17fc3d3e19dbab87b6ba3ab8289f83f614e22deaa04c2e 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/600x600/fp-x:0.99,fp-y:0.4,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-05-shutterstock_597828167_Mai_justrace.jpg?bossToken=d2a8a664d86f0f383b118bba3764313045cf48ac9d70a244824e5387204242c3 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/900x900/fp-x:0.99,fp-y:0.4,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-05-shutterstock_597828167_Mai_justrace.jpg?bossToken=6ac95d5171dd837cdfd10033f927ed94b84c334672f194d05e806f57ce3c6de3 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1200x1200/fp-x:0.99,fp-y:0.4,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-05-shutterstock_597828167_Mai_justrace.jpg?bossToken=1aee59f5adc86a5f9ef2bd818c4d0bf0748cd3dca4dcf8b5088713280cac747e 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1500x1500/fp-x:0.99,fp-y:0.4,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-05-shutterstock_597828167_Mai_justrace.jpg?bossToken=e4dfe230b160ddb329771bdf0a9ba4580403abef0c0de5e1fa14238e2f6d0380 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1800x1800/fp-x:0.99,fp-y:0.4,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-05-shutterstock_597828167_Mai_justrace.jpg?bossToken=c712997c9dae4d9486f106eeb59ac822b79f9a323b65ae72e67db3914e26bc33 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2100x2100/fp-x:0.99,fp-y:0.4,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-05-shutterstock_597828167_Mai_justrace.jpg?bossToken=c3d4eccb2a85e46c0f32f188f696025bebc4c4730d9d53efc8a8721ec9d3f87e 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2400x2400/fp-x:0.99,fp-y:0.4,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-05-shutterstock_597828167_Mai_justrace.jpg?bossToken=912caf2a7f1cca05e895f22800e5dc1f452faa89fad1d859eeefb76f591a5418 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2700x2700/fp-x:0.99,fp-y:0.4,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-05-shutterstock_597828167_Mai_justrace.jpg?bossToken=3b6e1a585869efbf129db7a64388eb671a999231e459d8fd8ebe60b3db2840e0 1543w)
photo: Mai Justrace
Traffic is a function of demand for a finite capacity. When congestion exists there is greater demand than capacity but that extra demand is unserved. It is typically referred to as latent demand. Latent demand is one reason that capacity increases result in more traffic, not faster travel and reduced congestion. Another factor is induced demand, i.e., by adding capacity travel can become faster–effectively cheaper since time is money. In economic terms the price of travel is reduced and that draws more consumers into the market. The “price drop” (time is money) induces more people to travel on that route, by that mode, at that time.
The converse is also true. If capacity is reduced the added time will dissuade some people from their interest in the trip. Capacity is also a binding constraint on the number of trips that can be served. Demand will only be as much as the capacity to accommodate it.
If the BQE is reduced to four lanes without other policy changes to reduce demand, some of the unmet demand will spill onto the rest of the existing network and some trips will be suppressed. In some cases, auto drivers will switch to transit when transit options are available. In other cases where there is some discretion and desirable options do not exist, the trip will not be made at all. Estimating how many trips would be diverted to other parts of the road network, to subways and buses, or would not be made at all would require further analysis. As described earlier, other urban highways have been converted to smaller facilities without obvious negative effects.
Summary table
Induced demand
Government leaders often say “build it and they will come.” This is certainly the case for highways. Many states and cities have tried to build new and wider highways in order to address congestion, only to see the bigger highways fill with traffic a few years later.
This concept is called “induced demand” where a larger highway encourages more traffic to use the road. This is why many urban planners say it is not possible to “build your way out of congestion.” New and wider highways are expensive to build and come with substantial environmental and community impacts. Favored approaches are those that manage capacity of highways using policies and pricing approaches.
On the flip side, where highways have been narrowed or removed entirely, traffic has declined and public transit use has grown.
![BQE featured](https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/300x300/fp-x:0.67,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-featured.jpg?bossToken=2568e0a3e47908629a6274eefb28d28a17cec83fae249bbef35b67d89a56e0b0 171w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/600x600/fp-x:0.67,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-featured.jpg?bossToken=975aa18fc5cb4dedc9eaf22e354b9bfa7f481d633b86a8cef90a3fa787d5ebb1 343w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/900x900/fp-x:0.67,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-featured.jpg?bossToken=1f4e7d92e685fb28ce29df8faa41478776a21e07e491c610dd33d553d1be0451 514w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1200x1200/fp-x:0.67,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-featured.jpg?bossToken=c32d2bec5846832720c15b1bc3c4ad6269280d257834311d0810141a5cc133b4 686w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1500x1500/fp-x:0.67,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-featured.jpg?bossToken=9f16a65908f9133f34ba53eed545c3fad3dac41034abcbbc6cabc307143a1051 857w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/1800x1800/fp-x:0.67,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-featured.jpg?bossToken=4f9132b40d9cb6efc31485822fae19a3b0684b9d91d24b1b5f84504aaeab0e05 1029w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2100x2100/fp-x:0.67,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-featured.jpg?bossToken=63bc6b7e28debc1048fb785f721755ca00b8d363d9def42f8173ac81f1a450d5 1200w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2400x2400/fp-x:0.67,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-featured.jpg?bossToken=4285fc7ce9d2c33e4c48ef989783ad580934d1e631a1eca607805cb28c744013 1371w, https://img.imageboss.me/general/cover/2700x2700/fp-x:0.67,fp-y:0.5,quality:80/work/Reports/2019-Reports/Reimagining-the-BQE/BQE-featured.jpg?bossToken=bcbe97b74a93b25aebfdf3ef31d6f9c6363c701babf24315964b7dfa975a8a89 1543w)
Next Steps
The analysis indicates that all of the evaluated policies have the potential to significantly reduce traffic. Two of the scenarios— implementing the Fix NYC congestion pricing plan and requiring at least three occupants in cars on BQE during peak periods— could reduce traffic to a degree that a four-lane highway could accommodate the remaining volume of cars and trucks. Other policies, such as reinstating two-way tolls on the Verrazano Bridge or HOV requirements on the free bridges, could also be used in combination to reach this threshold or to further ease traffic flows.
These results are far from conclusive, but they strongly suggest that traffic management strategies would make it easier to consider a wider range of highway reconstruction or replacement options. Even if these policies do not reduce traffic sufficiently to accommodate all remaining demand with fewer lanes under existing conditions, a smaller four-lane highway should still be considered. A new roadway design could improve efficiency and accommodate more vehicles per lane than the BQE does today. And the results from other cities that have transformed urban highways demonstrate that improved health and neighborhood environments can be achieved without worsening traffic or damaging the economy.
These policies also have a wide range of benefits in and of themselves. Congestion pricing would reduce street congestion throughout the commercial core of the city while raising funds to improve the transit network. All of the policies, including lane reduction itself, would help New York City achieve its ambitious carbon reduction goals by reducing the number of cars and trucks on the road. While most cannot be implemented without the approval or participation of New York State or the federal government, these entities should be partners in implementing a comprehensive solution. The BQE is part of the national interstate system, and state and federal regulations are part of the policy environment that is constraining alternatives that could bring the greatest benefits to the city, state and region.
Funded By
- A Better Way
- —
- Special Thanks
- While the content and accuracy of this report is strictly the responsibility of RPA, we wish to thank Hilary Jager, Laura Winner and Sabrina Gleizer of A Better Way, Charles Komanoff, and NYC Department of Transportation staff for providing us with data and other feedback. Tom Wright and Jeff Zupan of RPA also provided input for the report.
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