The Empire State Transportation Alliance (ESTA) is a coalition of civic, business, labor, and environmental groups, who have joined together to promote sound investment in New York’s transportation infrastructure. One of ESTA’s first efforts is to ensure the passage of a Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) five year (2000-2004) capital plan that will continue to restore the transit system to a state of good repair, improve critical operations and also implement new initiatives to expand the system where capacity is most needed.

The first step in developing a capital program is to make a capital needs assessment, which is a summary of what would ideally be done if there were no significant constraints on capital funds. This report describes ESTA’s assessment of the MTA’s capital needs for both the next five and next twenty years. The assessment was prepared by combining information from previous MTA assessments of the condition of its physical plant with an independent assessment prepared by the New York City Comptroller. The assessment also uses recent investments as a guide and incorporates priority areas for new initiatives. Comparisons are made with the draft Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) for the MTA where they are appropriate. ESTA will prepare a similar assessment of highway needs.

The assessment is designed to be used as a benchmark for the MTA’s forthcoming Five Year Capital Program. ESTA expects to work with the MTA and other stakeholders to develop this plan.

Since 1982, MTA has invested over $29 billion in the restoration of the Region’s subway, bus, and commuter rail systems. Track fires and derailments have been eliminated, subway cars are no longer covered in graffiti, and service reliability has dramatically improved. Metro North is now regarded as the most efficient commuter railroad in the country, and the Long Island Rail Road carries more riders than any other commuter rail system in the country. In New York City, the renovation of the subway and bus system, a resurgent economy, and the fare discounts and free transfers made possible by MetroCard have brought subway ridership to its highest level since 1970. Bus ridership is also up, 36 percent over the last three years. Unfortunately, we are now victims of our success, since this surging ridership has packed buses and trains with riders and is straining to the break point a system that has not added capacity in 60 years.

The next capital program must therefore both continue the existing system’s restoration and normal replacement, while also adopting new technologies and at the same time undertaking the first significant expansion of transit capacity in over half a century. ESTA’s needs assessment sets out what the MTA must do to provide the mobility needed to sustain the New York metropolitan region’s economic health and high quality of life.

This assessment discusses three specific program categories:

General State of Good Repair (SOGR) & Normal Replacement: SOGR is an ongoing program that has brought the region’s subway, bus, and commuter rail systems back from the disrepair and the brink of collapse of the early 1980s. The work must continue. In addition, systems that have reached a state of good repair must be put on a normal replacement schedule so that the systems do not deteriorate. ESTA estimates the cost for SOGR and normal replacement will be approximately $10.5 billion over the next five years (including $6.8 billion for the city’s subways) and more than $31 billion over the next twenty years ($19.7 billion for the subways). The draft Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) estimates a need for $10.2 billion for the entire MTA and $6.4 billion for the subways.
System Improvements: These improvements to existing facilities and vehicles go beyond SOGR’s goal of restoring existing facilities by introducing new technology and management reforms. The resulting improvements will reduce bus emissions, improve subway reliability and capacity, and resolve many of the problems associated with the subway station rehabilitation program.
- Clean Fuel Buses & Bus Fleet Expansion: Diesel tailpipe emissions, which include toxic and carcinogenic fine particulates, now represent one of the most serious health hazards in New York City. Diesel buses are among the most significant emitters. Asthma rates in much of the city, particularly among children and the elderly, are the highest in the US. ESTA proposes a “no more diesels” approach that would accelerate investment in converting bus depots to compressed natural gas (CNG) operations and would replace diesel buses with CNG buses to the maximum extent possible. MTA Long Island Bus has already committed to purchase CNG buses to replace its diesel fleet as it is retired. New York City Transit (NYCT) has made small purchases of CNG vehicles (500 out of a 4,000-bus fleet) which will be assigned to Brooklyn and The Bronx, but they have not yet committed to complete replacement of their diesel fleet. The MetroCard fare discounts, monthly and weekly passes, and free transfers have increased bus ridership by about 36 percent over the past three years. However, the bus fleet has only expanded by 10 percent in that period, which has led to severe crowding and deteriorating service. ESTA therefore recommends the expansion of the bus fleet by 400 buses (an additional 10 percent) in the next five-year program, with accompanying increases in storage and maintenance capacity This program will cost about $1.2 billion over the next five years and $3.6 billion over the next twenty. The draft TIP for NYCT requests only $635 million for buses and depots, which would not include any new CNG bus purchases, or significantly expand the fleet.
- Signal Modernization and Communications: SOGR has largely focused on repairing the existing fixed-block subway signal system, a technology developed in the early 1900s. This system limits train speed and the number of trains that can run over each subway line. The most modern technology is known as communications based train control (CBTC), which the MTA is testing on the Canarsie Line (L) and the diesel branches of the Long Island Rail Road. Once it is fully deployed, this technology will improve system reliability and safety and increase capacity. ESTA strongly endorses the MTA’s rapid adoption of this technology and recommends that its deployment be accelerated as soon as possible. ESTA also recommends rapid improvements to the passenger information systems throughout the system. These improvements will include development of variable message signs to provide passengers with real-time information about the arrival of their next bus or train, and information kiosks in stations and on-line to help them plan their trips and avoid crowding and service disruptions. This expanded communications and signals program will cost about $1.1 billion over the next five years and about $6.6 billion over the next twenty. The draft TIP requests $842 million over the next five years.
- Subway Stations: This program would overhaul the entire station rehabilitation process with the goals of improving cost management and accelerating repairs, focusing more on rider access and circulation improvements, and providing opportunities for greater input from the community. ESTA estimates that the total cost for renovation of the stations will be about $1.6 billion over the next five years and nearly $6 billion over the next twenty. The draft TIP requests nearly $1.7 billion over the next five years.
System Expansion: The MTA must embark on a major initiative to provide new capacity to accommodate surging ridership. Several projects have been proposed by the MTA, the city, and interested civic groups, including:
- East Side Access: MTA’s plan to connect the Long Island Rail Road to Grand Central Terminal, which will save 70,000 Long Islanders 45 minutes in commuting time each day.
- MetroLink: Regional Plan Association’s proposal for a new subway serving Manhattan’s East Side (including the Lower East Side), Brooklyn, Queens, and The Bronx. MetroLink would also provide high-speed connections for Long Island, Westchester County and Connecticut commuters to Lower Manhattan and a one-seat ride from Midtown, Lower Manhattan, and Downtown Brooklyn to JFK Airport.
- LaGuardia Airport Subway Access (LASA): an examination of options to extend the N train to connect Manhattan with La Guardia Airport. West Side Extension of the Flushing Line: a city proposal which would extend the Flushing Line (#7) to the Javits Convention Center. Other proposals to improve West Side transit service include a new cross-town light rail trolley and RPA’s Rx proposal for a new line under 43rd Street.
- Metro North Penn Station Access: This project would connect one or more of Metro North’s lines to Penn Station, bringing commuters from the northern suburbs to the west side of Midtown.
- Restoration of commuter rail service on the West Shore rail line, serving Rockland County, NY and Bergen County, NJ to offer rail service to a corridor with the highest auto shares in the region for commuting into Manhattan.
- Access to the Region’s Core (ARC): a project being considered jointly by the Port Authority, NJ TRANSIT, and the MTA, which would increase trans-Hudson commuter rail capacity and provide New Jersey and Rockland County commuters with better access to the East and West Sides of Midtown.
- Metro North Harlem Line Third Track and Long Island Rail Road’s Main Line Third Track projects, which will significantly expand commuter rail capacity and facilitate additional reverse commute service in Westchester County and on Long Island.

ESTA recommends the implementation of MetroLink in tandem with East Side Access, the construction of the Metro North Third Track and the final design of the Long Island Rail Road Third Track projects in the next five years. ESTA also recommends funding continued planning of the LaGuardia Subway Access, Flushing Line, West Shore, ARC and Penn Station Access projects, to be followed by the implementation of those projects for which a consensus on need and scope is achieved. The cost of these new capacity projects will be approximately $4 billion over the next five years, and $20 billion over the next 20 years. The draft TIP requests approximately $2.6 billion, which is almost totally dedicated to East Side Access and leaves out any significant funding for any element of MetroLink such as the Second Avenue subway, or for the LaGuardia, Flushing extension, West Shore or Penn Station projects.

Conclusion & Next Steps

ESTA estimates the full cost to meet the capital needs of the MTA would be $18 billion in the next five years, and $68 billion over twenty years. The 20-year assessment assumes the following objectives:

All program areas reach a state of good repair and begin normal replacement cycles by 2019
All diesel buses are replaced with CNG buses
CBTC is installed on all subway and commuter rail lines and a full network of passenger information systems is in place
All subway stations have been renovated, with access and circulation improvements where appropriate
MetroLink, East Side Access, and the LIRR and Metro North Third Track projects are completed along with at least one of the other new capacity projects under consideration.