Hundreds of thousands of residents in New York state could be evicted or foreclosed upon within the next two months after state and federal emergency tenant protections expire, according to the Census Household Pulse Survey. Even if just a fraction of these numbers materialize, a surge of individuals in need of shelter may pushing the state’s shelter system far beyond its already strained capacity.

The economic hardship brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated New York’s pre-existing homelessness and housing crises. At the start of the pandemic, lost jobs and stagnant incomes quickly forced individuals to choose between paying rent, keeping the lights on or putting food on the table. In response, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo enacted an eviction moratorium and other tenant protections to prevent mass evictions during a public health emergency. These actions likely saved thousands of lives: experiencing homelessness or doubling-up with friends or family members have both been found to have positive associations with COVID-19 infection and mortality rates.

However, the state moratorium is set to expire on August 31, 2021 and the federal moratorium will expire this Saturday, July 31, bringing these crises to a head. New data depicting the inverse relationship between eviction filings and vaccination rates – New York showing an above average correlation – continue to underscore the role of housing as a determinant of health. New York needs new, long-term and immediate solutions for homelessness and housing that don’t just return us to the pre-pandemic status quo.

Although the emergency protections prevented evictions, tenants will still owe back-rent once the protections expire. For many, months of unpaid rent have been accumulating over the past year and a half. While New York has offered some support to renters in need of assistance during this time, data regarding the rollout of their Emergency Rental Assistance Program (ERAP) has made clear that not everyone in need of help has received it. For the first round of the program, the state received about 94,000 applications for a one-time rental assistance award. More than 57,000 applications were denied, and of those that were accepted, the median award was $1,816 (equal to one month’s rent for a 1-bedroom apartment priced at Fair Market Rent). By the end of 2020, only $47 million of the $100 million dedicated to rental relief was distributed to applicants.

New York recently began accepting applications for a second round of the program on June 1, 2021. Although the state received about 119,000 applications in the first month alone, tenants and landlords are saying the application portal is glitchy, difficult to use, and extremely time consuming. There are multiple accounts of tenants being prevented from submitting applications or uploading necessary documentation. Although the state has hired additional staff to resolve these issues and expedite the application review process, the program’s track record suggests funds will not reach all those in need by the time eviction protections expire.

So many are at risk of eviction in New York largely because our housing system was already in crisis prior to the pandemic. New York maintains the highest rate of homelessness throughout the country, at 46 people per 10,000. Compared to 10 years ago, the number of New Yorkers residing in shelters each night is 39% higher and the number of single adults experiencing homelessness is 109% higher. Even with the halt on evictions, the number of single adults residing in shelters increased in both 2020 and 2021, and as of April 2021, there were 53,199 individuals residing in shelters. The shelter system is meant to provide temporary, emergency shelter to individuals, but the lack of affordable housing in New York leaves those experiencing homelessness with no place to permanently go.

New York needs immediate solutions to mitigate this impending crisis. Governor Cuomo must immediately ensure the ERAP program is actually functioning and delivering rental assistance in a timely manner. The legislature must also ensure that other means of assistance are reaching the full scope of those in need. For example, while forthcoming legislation will raise the value of New York City’s CityFHEPS vouchers to that of Fair Market Rent, last minute changes in the legislation greatly narrowed the eligibility criteria for this program. The initial legislation guaranteed assistance for individuals until their rent was 30 percent or less than their annual income. However, the amended legislation now makes it so New Yorkers are no longer eligible to receive a voucher once their annual income exceeds 250 percent of the federal poverty line, or, is more than $32,200 per year for a single person. To ensure programs like this are working as intended, New York must continuously monitor their outcomes and adjust the implementation and eligibility criteria if they are not having the anticipated impact.

New York should use lessons learned about the shortcomings of our housing system to build back in a way that creates change and does not repeat the same mistakes. The proposals to legalize ADUs and promote transit-oriented-development offer hope for the future, but right now, New York must stabilize and monitor its rental assistance programs to mitigate the impending eviction crisis before it is too late.